Li Bi
Take Fanyang first
The base camp or the capital
The Comprehensive Mirror, Tang chronicles
In the middle of the An Lushan rebellion the emperor wanted his capitals back. This is about why Li Bi called that the worst move.
What actually happened?
In 757 Emperor Suzong asked how to end the rebellion. Li Bi's plan: let Guo Ziyi and Li Guangbi pin the rebels down, running them back and forth between Guanzhong and Hebei until they were exhausted, then drive straight at Fanyang, An Lushan's home and base, where the families and the baggage were. Suzong wanted the two capitals first. He got them, the rebel core withdrew to Hebei, and the war ran six more years. Your Majesty wanted the capitals quickly, so the rebels grew strong again and we grew weak again.
The conspicuous target is rarely the decisive one
The two capitals were the symbol, the legitimacy, the place everyone was watching. Fanyang was the supply, the families, the way home. Taking the first lets you announce a victory; taking the second ends the war. The return curves are not the same shape.
Landing a marquee client makes the news. Fixing the renewal flow that has been leaking for a year does not, and decides whether you are here in three years.
Leave the base and they have somewhere to rebuild
Driving an opponent off and removing him are different outcomes. While the base stands, whatever you pushed back goes home, refills, reorganises and returns. So the quality of a victory is measured by whether the other side can still recover.
You priced them out of one city and their supply chain and their team are intact. In three months they come back with a different approach.
Announcing early has a price, and it is payable
Suzong was not stupid. A newly enthroned emperor needed something he could proclaim, and that need was real. The price was six years. Every decision made in order to have something to report should be costed that way first.
Shipping half a product so the year-end number exists is a loan. The repayment is the rework and the reputation over the two years after.
How do I use it today?
Where you are: there is a conspicuous target and a decisive one, and resources for only one.
Ask first: after you take the conspicuous one, can the other side still recover?
Where it goes wrong: treating a repulse as a solution; choosing the fast result because something has to be announced, and never costing the long half.
Lines to keep
Strike Fanyang, destroy the nest, and the root is gone for good.
You wanted the capitals quickly, so they grew strong and we grew weak.
Driving them off and removing them are two different outcomes.
Same situation, other people are asking
The more rules I add, the more people route around them.Everyone is chasing the same thing. Where is nobody standing?Every hour is booked and one delay wrecks the week.The numbers look great. Is that skill or is it leverage?I'm managing it and it's getting worse · all 14 questions →If this one named what you are going through,
send it to someone who needs it, or keep it somewhere you will find it again.