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Learning and growth

Isaac Newton

Framing no hypotheses

Isaac Newton (England · 1643–1727) — Framing no hypotheses.

Learning and growthEarly modernFraming no hypotheses

What actually happened?

In August 1684 the astronomer Edmond Halley came to Cambridge and asked what curve a planet would follow if the sun's pull weakened with the square of the distance. An ellipse, Newton said, and he had worked it out, but he could not find the paper among the others on his desk. After Halley left he did the sum again, and in November sent a short tract that grew into the Principia. It came out in 1687, and Halley paid for the printing.

Keep the rule apart from the cause

He gave the formula for gravity in full, and when asked how it reaches across empty space he said he did not yet know and would not make something up. What was not drawn from the phenomena he called a hypothesis and kept out of his conclusions.

You see from the data that sales move with the weather. 'People are in a better mood' is only a guess, and in the report it gets a line to itself.

Sold well, then bought back in

In spring 1720 he sold his South Sea stock for a profit of a few thousand pounds. In summer he watched the price keep rising, bought a larger stake, and by the autumn crash had lost about twenty thousand pounds in all.

You cash out, it rises another twenty per cent, and what you remember is the twenty per cent, not the gain already in your hand.

Admit no extra cause

The Principia opens with rules of reasoning, and the first says to admit no more causes than are true and enough to explain the thing. The extra one is your taste, not evidence.

Traffic fell and your data shows two changes you made. Check those two before you wonder whether the algorithm changed.

How do I use it today?

This week take one conclusion you are about to give someone and split it into two columns: what I measured or calculated, and what I guessed. When you report it, say the two columns separately.

Deep read

Sold Too Early, Bought Back InWhat hurts most after a good sale is having sold earlyIn spring he sold at a profit, in summer he watched others keep gaining and bought back a larger stakeCan't Say Why, Use It AnywayKeep what you can calculate apart from what you can guessHe gave the formula for gravity, and when asked how it reaches across empty space he said he did not yet know

Read alongside

Albert EinsteinBoth faced a cause nobody had. Newton said he would not invent one and left it empty while the calculation stood; Einstein invented one and pushed it until it contradicted itself. One shelves what he cannot prove, the other puts it out to be tested. Charles P. KindlebergerThe same South Sea bubble of 1720. Kindleberger stood outside it and laid three hundred years of crashes into one table; Newton was one cell in that table, inside it and swept along. One counted from outside, the other was pushed from within.

Further

Albert Einstein Richard Feynman Charles P. Kindleberger George Soros

Lines to keep

Explain a thing without adding a cause.