AI Earnings Are a Bubble: Costs Deferred, Profits Front-Loaded
AI infrastructure profits are realized now, while costs are amortized into the future, creating an earnings bubble. The stock market will peak before earnings, so investors should be wary rather than chase.
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The argument · tap a timestamp to hear it
AI earnings are an accounting bubble
Jim Chanos points out that giants like Microsoft borrow to build data centers, and purchases of Nvidia chips immediately become suppliers' profits, while their own costs are amortized over the next 5-10 years. Thus, the larger the AI infrastructure buildout, the more current earnings are boosted. If ultimate returns disappoint, this earnings growth is unsustainable.
— Kevin MuirThe stock market peaks before earnings
When the stock market peaked in 2022, expected earnings were still rising; it wasn't until earnings actually declined that the market stopped falling. The market is a forward-looking tool and will reflect earnings turning points in advance. Therefore, investors should not wait for earnings data to deteriorate before acting, but should be alert that stock prices may fall before earnings.
— Kevin MuirLeveraged ETFs amplify market volatility
Leveraged ETFs reset daily, buying on up days and selling on down days, creating a positive feedback loop. SK Hynix's leveraged ETF grew from $2 billion to $30 billion, with significant market impact. In a crash, forced liquidation could trigger a chain reaction, similar to portfolio insurance in 1987.
— Kevin MuirThe gold bull market is not over
Kevin is bullish on gold again, based on the long-term trend of the People's Bank of China continuously increasing its gold reserves. He uses technical analysis as an entry signal, buying after a breakout above the 50-day moving average. He believes the gold bull market began in 2022, and the current pullback is a buying opportunity.
— Kevin MuirPlatinum is below production cost
Platinum prices are below production costs, attracting Kevin's attention. He missed last year's rally and bought it along with gold during the pullback. He believes hybrid vehicles are winning, so catalytic converter demand remains, and platinum has upside.
— Kevin MuirCrowded trades are a danger signal
When everyone is bullish on an asset, it often signals a top is near. Kevin quotes Jim Grant: good investments are when everyone agrees with you... afterwards. He advises contrarian thinking; when you receive negative feedback, it may signal opportunity.
— Kevin MuirThe US-Canada trade deficit is mostly oil
Kevin checked US Census Bureau data and found that Canada's trade surplus with the US comes almost entirely from oil and natural gas. Excluding energy, the US actually has a surplus with Canada. Canada buys US manufactured goods, while the US buys Canadian raw materials, so a trade war does not help bring manufacturing back.
— Kevin MuirTariff uncertainty hinders investment
Kevin believes Trump's erratic tariff policies increase policy uncertainty, and companies are reluctant to build plants in an uncertain environment. If the goal is to revitalize manufacturing, tariffs should be raised steadily through legislation, not switched on and off arbitrarily. This volatility harms the US economy in the long run.
— Kevin MuirIn their own words · checked verbatim
the larger this AI build out becomes, the more earnings get bumped.
Kevin Muir20:38
it is a bubble in terms of that actual earnings.
Kevin Muir23:52
the market and the underlying structure is becoming increasingly fragile.
Kevin Muir34:30
We are your best customer. We are selling you raw stuff out of the ground that we don't do anything on.
Kevin Muir55:11
Figures
| US nominal GDP growth | 6.5% | 3:03 |
| Increase in long-term Treasury yields | 50 basis points | 3:03 |
| US fiscal deficit as % of GDP | 7% | 4:05 |
| SK Hynix leveraged ETF growth | from $2 billion to $30 billion | 28:16 |
| Lucid leveraged ETF decline | 45% | 32:21 |
| Canada's auto trade deficit with US | $7.2 billion | 54:11 |
| Canada's oil and gas trade surplus with US | $82 billion | 54:11 |
Glossary
- Earnings bubble
- Earnings growth driven by accounting treatments or short-term factors, rather than sustainable fundamental growth.
- Leveraged ETF
- An exchange-traded fund that provides daily leveraged returns and resets its positions daily.
- Off-the-run bond
- A Treasury bond that has been issued but is no longer the most recently issued, with lower liquidity.
- TGA
- The Treasury General Account, the checking account of the US Treasury at the Federal Reserve, used to manage government receipts and payments.
How to listen
Investors focused on AI bubble risks, macro traders, and business decision-makers concerned about US-Canada trade policy.
The lengthy discussion of the bond market at the beginning can be skipped; the focus is on the latter half.