US Measles Returns: CDC Refuses to Count Two Child Deaths
Pennsylvania's two measles deaths were erased from the CDC's weekly report on the grounds of "insufficient information" — but the CDC itself took part in that investigation. The precedent is more dangerous than the case: state-reported notifiable disease data can now be rejected by the federal government on undisclosed standards.
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The argument · tap a timestamp to hear it
Florida's local dengue no longer requires leaving the country
Griffin says he can now see dengue cases without leaving the country: Florida added 32 locally acquired dengue cases last week, bringing the cumulative total past 70, with 14 infected mosquito pools detected across five counties. In the same segment he also mentions the health advisory the CDC issued that day — since July 2026, rabies-related consultations are up 17% over the same period in 2025, including large-scale exposure events, against a backdrop of US pet owners becoming hesitant about vaccinating animals against rabies. His framing: US infectious diseases are rising, and these are diseases we have known how to prevent for decades.
— Daniel GriffinNIH money is being moved to the Department of Defense
Nature reported that NIH is seeking to shift hundreds of millions of dollars in research programs from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases to the Department of Defense's biodefense programs, and two NIH employees said the two sides have signed a preliminary agreement. Responding to Nature, the Department of Defense called the agreement a "project-by-project strategic collaboration" and said "any suggestion that the agreement was reached in secret is false" — but the response did not mention money. Griffin's criticism lands here: collaboration is fine, biodefense is fine, and the Department of Defense has plenty of its own money; it does not need to move funds out of an NIH that is already underfunded.
— Daniel GriffinHPV vaccine coverage is only 77.7%
Among adolescents aged 13 to 17 in 2025, only 77.7% had received at least one dose of the HPV vaccine, and only 63.4% had completed the full series — the fourth consecutive year without growth. By comparison, Tdap and meningococcal vaccine coverage has held at about 90% since 2019. Griffin's argument is direct: this is a cancer-preventing vaccine, it can prevent cervical, anogenital and head and neck cancers, and vaccination at ages 13 to 17 can prevent 100% of them; the studies he cites show a 90% decline in certain head and neck cancers and more than 80% across all head and neck cancers. He attributes the flat coverage to the anti-vaccine camp framing it as a "sexually transmitted infection vaccine."
— Daniel GriffinCDC deleted the two state-reported measles deaths
On August 25, the Pennsylvania Department of Health announced two measles-related deaths in Lancaster County, the state's first in 35 years. The next day, RFK Jr. suggested on X that the deaths might have been fabricated by the governor's staff. Late on Sunday night, August 30, the CDC published its weekly report, replacing the two deaths with an asterisk and saying the available information could not determine whether measles caused or contributed to the deaths. According to The Washington Post and CNN, the decision came from the new CDC director, Erica Schwarz, at RFK Jr.'s direction. The key fact Racanello adds: the CDC was in fact embedded in that investigation, so the "insufficient information" claim does not hold up.
— Vincent RacanelloThe structure of the death certificate is being used as a shield
The technical core of the dispute is how death certificates are filled out. Part I lists the chain of events leading to death, with the top line being the immediate cause, the lines below it the conditions it caused, and the last line the underlying cause that set off the whole sequence; Part II records other significant contributing conditions. So the immediate cause line reads pneumonia, encephalitis or splenic rupture, while measles appears in Part II. The county coroner's statement that "no measles was the immediate cause of death" plays precisely on this structure. Racanello quotes former CDC medical examiner Deb Hury: states have always reported deaths, the CDC has always counted them, and the CDC's role has historically been to receive, tabulate, and reconcile afterward — reconciling afterward is normal, refusing a state's report at the intake point is not.
— Vincent RacanelloThe real damage is that the data become negotiable
Racanello frames the consequence as heavier than the individual case: if the CDC can refuse a state's notifiable disease report until it is satisfied, then the national count becomes negotiable, and every state's data is subject to federal review under undisclosed standards. He stresses that this damage is independent of who holds office and applies equally to the next director. By contrast, the two children in West Texas and the adult in New Mexico were all counted directly after state reporting, with no independent federal adjudication. Pennsylvania also pushed back on the federal account of "what information was provided," saying both deaths were reported to the CDC measles response team and that the state epidemiologist conducted a thorough investigation.
— Vincent RacanelloFlu antivirals within 48 hours cut hospitalization risk 81%
A multicenter, retrospective case-control study matched by age and season included laboratory-confirmed pediatric outpatients with influenza seen at participating hospitals between 2020 and 2023; cases were children subsequently hospitalized or killed by influenza, and controls were matched by initial visit date and age. Among 1,492 children, starting antiviral treatment within 48 hours of symptom onset was associated with an 81% lower overall risk of hospitalization compared with delayed or no use, and the finding was robust across analyses. Griffin uses this to restate his long-standing point: for viral illness, timing is everything — you cannot "wait and see."
— Daniel GriffinVaccination cuts cardiovascular event risk by 80%
A statewide cohort study and target trial emulation based on linked administrative health data for 2,391,456 adults in Victoria, Australia, from 2019 to 2025 examined the association between vaccination around the time of infection and major adverse cardiovascular events. MACE covered stroke, heart failure, heart attack, atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism. Vaccination was associated with lower risk of all these events, with an estimated absolute risk reduction of 21% — which Griffin translates into an 80% risk reduction. His landing point: every COVID infection carries the risk of heart attack and stroke, and what the vaccine truly reduces significantly is disease, not just infection for a brief window.
— Daniel GriffinIn their own words · checked verbatim
So this is a cancer vaccine. we have the ability to really reduce u all these cancers
Daniel Griffin12:12
states investigate outbreak deaths and the CDC compiles them. That is how the system has worked for decades.
Vincent Racanello19:18
If the CDC can decline a state's notifiable disease report pending its own satisfaction, then national counts become negotiable and every state's data is subject to federal review on unstated criteria.
Vincent Racanello23:20
That's the damage and it applies to whoever holds the office next.
Vincent Racanello23:20
you know, if your team is in control right now, um, at some point the other team is going to be in control. No, no team in the in the federal government should be basically messing with the data, not giving us full disclosure on what's going on.
Daniel Griffin26:22
Early antiviral therapy was associated with an 81% lower risk of hospitalization overall.
Daniel Griffin30:24
It is not only incredibly safe, but is so much safer to be vaccinated than to not.
Daniel Griffin38:29
Figures
| Florida locally acquired dengue cases | 32 new last week, cumulative total over 70 | 4:06 |
| Florida infected mosquito pools | 14, across 5 counties | 4:06 |
| US rabies-related consultations, year-over-year increase | 17% more since July 2026 than the same period in 2025 | 5:09 |
| HPV vaccination rate among adolescents aged 13-17 | at least one dose 77.7%, full series 63.4% | 10:09 |
| Tdap and meningococcal vaccine coverage | about 90% since 2019 | 9:09 |
| DRC Bundibugyo virus confirmed/deaths | 6,757 confirmed cases, 3,267 deaths | 17:16 |
| US measles case count | 3,231 cases (Johns Hopkins tracking) | 25:21 |
| Hospitalization risk reduction from early antiviral treatment in pediatric influenza | 81%, sample of 1,492 children | 30:24 |
| Absolute risk reduction in MACE associated with COVID vaccination | 21% (Griffin translates to an 80% risk reduction) | 33:27 |
| Victoria cohort study sample size | 2,391,456 adults, 2019-2025 | 32:24 |
Glossary
- MACE / major adverse cardiovascular events
- A composite endpoint covering stroke, heart failure, myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism.
- Bundibugyo virus
- A species of ebolavirus; the 2026 outbreaks in Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo were caused by it.
- immune amnesia
- After measles infection, pre-existing immune memory is wiped out, raising the long-term risk of infection by other pathogens.
- target trial emulation
- A causal inference method that uses observational data to emulate the design of a randomized trial, reducing confounding.
How to listen
Clinicians following public health and vaccine policy, epidemiology practitioners, and readers who want to understand the US measles outbreak and changes in CDC data governance.
The first two minutes of chit-chat about iPhones and recording gear, plus the fundraising and listener mail at the end.