Curse Undone by Statistics: Tomb Visitors Lived 20 More Years on Average
Among 44 Westerners in Egypt—25 who entered Tutankhamun's tomb, 19 who didn't—an epidemiologist found nearly identical lifespans. Most curse legends came from tabloid fabrications amplified over a century.
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Misfortune trailed an Egyptian coffin for generations
Four British tourists drew lots to purchase a painted coffin, the winner paid dearly and then vanished in the desert; the other three suffered gunshot wounds and disability, were bankrupted by bank runs, and were reduced to selling matches in the street. The coffin passed through the British Museum and private collections before an American archaeologist bought it and shipped it across the Atlantic on the Titanic. This legend predates the Tutankhamun curse and serves as this episode's first case study.
— Tim HarfordSpiritualist's cable prophesied death to all who entered the tomb
Before Carter and Carnarvon entered Tutankhamun's tomb, a self-proclaimed Count Haman sent a cable: Lord Carnarvon must not enter the chamber, or face divine retribution, unending illness, and death in Egypt. Weeks later, Carter broke through the final sealed door and lit a candle to peer inside; Carnarvon eagerly asked what he saw. Carter replied only ‘Yes, wonderful things.’ The curse's suspense and the thrill of discovery ignited in the same moment.
— Tim HarfordThe death toll mounted while connections to the curse grew ever more tenuous
Carter's canary was eaten by a cobra; Carnarvon's dog died in England at the exact moment its master lay dying thousands of miles away. A railroad magnate, Carnarvon's half-brother, a radiologist, an assassinated British diplomat, a French Egyptologist, Carnarvon's secretary, the secretary's father, even an eight-year-old boy passing the secretary's father's funeral procession—all were added to the curse's account. The list spanned nearly twenty years, with each new death ever more distant from any plausible connection to the tomb.
— Tim HarfordThe tomb's toxins theory collapses under epidemiological scrutiny
Some hypothesized deadly fungi in the tomb, powder specially formulated by ancient Egyptians, or even radioactive material. But radioactivity is easily detected; if lethal doses existed in the tomb, instruments would have found them. Epidemiologist F. Dwight Miller told National Geographic that no archaeologist or visitor has ever contracted illness from tomb fungi or bacteria; by the sanitary standards of the time, Carnarvon was actually safer inside the tomb than outside. A single toxin cannot account for deaths scattered across decades and continents.
— Tim HarfordNocebo effect: belief in harm creates injury in the body
Benjamin Franklin, investigating mesmerist Mesmer, observed a patient who believed a mesmerist stood behind a closed door convulse within three minutes, her teeth chattering as she bit her own gums—yet no one was there. Franklin saw that false treatments could produce real effects, what would later be called the placebo effect; its twin, the nocebo effect, is injury produced by the expectation of injury alone. The host suggests this might explain RAF crew member Ken Parkinson's mysterious heart attacks, occurring yearly on the same date.
— Tim HarfordThe Target pregnancy story reveals selection bias, not algorithmic omniscience
A father confronted Target management: why had the retailer sent his high school daughter baby product coupons? Days later, he apologized—his daughter was pregnant, the family simply didn't know. This story, widely repeated in the New York Times Magazine, was held up as proof the algorithm was all-knowing. But the story contains no evidence that all women receiving those coupons were pregnant. If Target sent coupons to all women under 45, or even all customers, the algorithm would still appear eerie in its accuracy. This is selection bias: you notice reported coincidences and forget the silent majority.
— Tim HarfordStatistical analysis with a control group demolishes the curse narrative
Epidemiologist Mark Nelson conducted a rigorous analysis in the British Medical Journal: among 44 Western people documented by Carter in Egypt, 25 entered the tomb and 19 did not. The results showed almost no evidence of curse—tomb visitors lived an average 20 more years, with average death age exceeding 70; Carter himself lived 17 more years after the discovery, no shorter than average and hardly consistent with watching all his friends die. The only difference was tomb visitors' death age slightly lower than non-visitors, but the latter were mostly the archaeologist's wives, who naturally live longer.
— Tim HarfordThe 'Unlucky Coffin' was never aboard the Titanic
The Titanic's cargo manifest survives intact with no record of any Egyptian artifacts. More critically, the painted coffin said to have sunk in the Atlantic never left the British Museum—it carries the catalog number EA-22542, and the host walked into the museum and saw it himself. Other details of the curse story unravel under scrutiny: Count Haman was not actually a count; when he warned tourists not to take the coffin, it had already left Egypt when he was three years old. The radiologist's death had another explanation entirely—he died of cancer and was too ill to travel to Egypt.
— Tim HarfordIn their own words · checked verbatim
Lord Carnarvon not to enter tomb. Disobey at peril. If ignored, will suffer sickness. Not recover. Death will claim him in Egypt.
Count Haman6:29
Can you see anything? It was all I could do to get out the words. Yes. Wonderful things.
Howard Carter7:30
One eyewitness turned to the fellow standing next to him. I give him six weeks to live.
an eyewitness9:35
we don't know of even a single case of either an archaeologist or a tourist experiencing any negative consequences from either tomb moulds or bacteria.
F. DeWolf Miller16:47
If these people can be persuaded to forbear their drugs in expectation of being cured by only the physician's finger or an iron rod pointing at them, they may possibly find good effects.
Benjamin Franklin21:57
She's still in high school and you're sending her coupons for baby clothes and cribs? Are you trying to encourage her to get pregnant?
an angry father25:01
On average, people lived for another 20 years after visiting the tomb.
Tim Harford30:13
It's exhaustive and it lists no Egyptian artefacts.
Tim Harford36:26
Figures
| Nelson study sample size | 44 Western people documented in Egypt (25 who entered the tomb, 19 who did not) | 29:13 |
| Average additional lifespan of tomb visitors | 20 years | 30:13 |
| Average death age of tomb visitors | Over 70 | 30:13 |
| Howard Carter's additional lifespan after discovery | 17 years | 30:13 |
| Coffin catalog number at British Museum | EA-22542 | 36:26 |
Glossary
- Nocebo effect
- Real physical harm resulting from the expectation or belief that one will be harmed; the inverse of the placebo effect.
- Selection bias
- Overweighting reported coincidences while overlooking the far larger population where no coincidence occurred.
How to listen
Readers who prefer statistical thinking to debunk urban legends, and those interested in cognitive biases and placebo and nocebo effects.
The opening two sections on the coffin legend and its Titanic connection are setup only; the core statistical argument follows and can be skipped ahead.