Forward Guidance
A macro trading desk on fiscal dominance, yield suppression and bond market mechanics; hard calls, named specifics
Deep reads here2 / 632 episodes
Cadence~1 every 7.0 days
Latest2026-10-20
TopicsInvesting & Business
PriorityT3
1:12:30Forward Guidance
0918
The Fed Is Hiking Into a Growth Slowdown, and Europe Is About to Walk Japan's Devaluation Road
The Fed starts hiking as growth peaks, while the $300–400 billion of "stealth midterm stimulus" that propped up US consumption for the past year is now receding; Vincent Deluard argues Europe today is exactly where Japan was in 2012, and the only way out is currency depreciation.
9 Points
8 Quotes
FedStagflation
46:09Forward Guidance
0812
The Fed's Trap: Growth Strategy and the Bond Market Standoff
The Fed faces a dilemma: sustaining growth requires loose policy, but the bond market demands higher rates because of inflation and deficits. Without hikes, the 10-year Treasury yield could reach 5.8% and the 30-year above 6%.
6 Points
4 Quotes
FedBond Market