股票和债券的风险其实一样大，只是没人告诉你

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I mean, I certainly take the view that finance and social science in general is not a science. You don't have this access to universal statements. But often people think that we do, and that can be dangerous in times of regime change.

我确实认为，金融以及整个社会科学都不是科学。你无法获得普适性的陈述。但人们常常以为可以，这在 regime 转换的时期是危险的。

Inigo Fraser-Jenkins9:03

rather than talking about diversification in a sense of trying to find things that have a low correlation amongst themselves, we're talking about diversification across different possible paths of the future.

我们谈的不再是寻找彼此低相关性的资产那种分散化，而是跨未来不同可能路径的分散化。

Inigo Fraser-Jenkins14:11

if you look at the volatility of 20-year holding periods, then essentially the vol of stocks and bonds are equal. Or phrased another way, the probability of a real loss on bonds becomes greater than the probability of a real loss on equities once you extend out beyond a few business cycles.

如果看20年持有期的波动率，股票和债券的波动率基本相等。换个说法，一旦把期限拉长到超出几个商业周期，债券发生实际亏损的概率就变得高于股票。

Inigo Fraser-Jenkins31:46

my view is tax rates are going up, you know, at some horizon. And so the combination of the two views imply that the value to a taxable investor of the tax planning actually becomes a larger share of the take-home returns than they've had for many years.

我的看法是，税率在某个时间尺度上会上行。这两个判断叠加意味着，对需要缴税的投资者来说，税务筹划在税后收益里占的份额会比过去很多年都大。

Inigo Fraser-Jenkins40:06

we showed in a paper a while ago that the number of equity indices in the world was already measured in the millions, whereas there only are about 45,000 stocks all in in the world, including small caps.

我们之前在一篇论文里展示过，全球股票指数的数量早已以百万计，而全世界股票总共只有大约45000只，还包括小盘股。

Inigo Fraser-Jenkins42:08

there is no such thing as a default natural cross-asset benchmark. I mean, some people would say, oh, well, surely it's 60-40. Well, yes, 60-40 is often the default allocation people use, but it happens to have done well in the last 40 or 50 years. But there's no theoretical basis for it, really.

根本不存在一个天然的默认跨资产基准。有人会说，那不就是60-40吗。是的，60-40 常被当作默认配置，但它只是过去四五十年恰好表现好，其实没有理论基础。

Inigo Fraser-Jenkins43:11

I would argue that that shift since 22 to the correlation of asset classes being positive is firstly, a return to normality. So if you go back over the 200 years prior to the last 30 years, that correlation was positive most of the time.

我认为2022年以来资产类别相关性转正，首先是回归常态。回看过去30年之前的200年，这个相关性大部分时间是正的。

Inigo Fraser-Jenkins47:22

数字与实体

术语

total portfolio approach总组合方法

不以资产类别为首要维度，而是按驱动组合的基本因子整体分配风险。

rule against perpetuities禁止永续权规则

普通法原则，强制家族财富在约100年内回到个人手中，从而被征税。

recency bias近因偏差

把近期经验当作常态，Inigo 认为这是长期投资者最大的敌人。

60-4060-40 组合

六成股票四成债券的默认配置，Inigo 认为它没有理论基础。

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