Anthropic三季度放缓不是需求退潮，是算力不够卖

核心论点 · 点时间戳可跳到原声

原话 · 已逐字校验

my view essentially is that if we do too much of that, that there's a very good chance that, in fact, AI will kill everyone, either philanthropic or otherwise.

我的看法基本上是，如果我们对这些担忧过度回避，AI真的有很大概率把所有人都杀光，不管是以仁慈的方式还是别的方式。

Zvi Mowshowitz6:21

if you choose not to make a costly signal, you've told me who you are. You've told me you're not willing to make a sacrifice that's meaningful.

如果你选择不发出这种有代价的信号，你就已经告诉了我你是谁。你告诉我你不愿意做出真正有意义的牺牲。

Zvi Mowshowitz7:24

But their matching program for employees might be one of the most expensive single corporate decisions ever made in the history of capitalism.

但他们这个员工配捐计划，可能是资本主义历史上代价最高的单项企业决定之一。

Patrick McKenzie11:33

Their Q3 revenue softening isn't a demand story, it's a supply story. They're running all the GPUs they have, and it just isn't enough.

他们三季度收入放缓不是需求故事，是供给故事。他们把手头所有GPU都用满了，还是不够。

Patrick McKenzie23:26

Like, it's possible that the entire business history of Google to this point was a bootloader for this business.

谷歌迄今为止的整个商业史，很可能只是为这门生意铺路的引导程序。

Patrick McKenzie50:08

So after, you know, 20 years of devoting a significant portion of all my cycles to getting good at that, you achieved it by accident. Wonderful.

所以，在我花了二十年大量精力专门练这件事之后，你（模型）却是无意中就做到了。了不起。

Patrick McKenzie1:01:49

We have already passed the portion at which AI is more than 5% of the GDP of a nation. It's more than 5% of the GDP of North Korea by enabling them to innovate in their business model of stealing money from crypto people.

我们已经到了AI给一国贡献超过其GDP5%的阶段——它让朝鲜靠从加密货币玩家那里偷钱这门生意升级，这部分产值已经超过朝鲜GDP的5%。

Patrick McKenzie1:13:09

数字与实体

术语

S-1S-1招股说明书

美国公司IPO前向SEC提交的注册文件，披露财务与风险

closing the loop闭环自我改进

节目里对「递归自我改进」更商业化的说法，指AI自主改进AI

pacing the frontier共同把控前沿节奏

行业自律说法，主张各实验室按统一速度推进而非失控抢跑

cohort economics分批客群经济学

按客户入场批次分组追踪消费曲线，判断增长是否见顶

net revenue retention净收入留存率

衡量老客户后续消费增长幅度的指标，高于100%代表越花越多

bootloader引导程序

比喻说法，指看似独立的旧业务实为启动更大新业务而存在

收听指南