Jeff Bezos
Bet on what will not change
The question almost nobody asks
Public interviews (re:Invent 2012 among others); the 1997 shareholder letter
Everyone asks him what the next ten years will change. He says the more useful question is the one he almost never gets.
What actually happened?
He is asked constantly what will change in the next ten years. He says he is almost never asked what is not going to change — and that the second question matters more, because you can build a strategy around what is stable. His own answer is unglamorous: in ten years customers will still want lower prices, faster delivery, more selection. Nobody will ever say, I love Amazon, I just wish the prices were higher and the delivery slower. Every dollar put into those is still paying interest a decade on.
Change is news; constancy is foundation
A strategy that chases change is rebuilt every two years. Investment in a need that does not move compounds for twenty. The sorting question is easy to run: list what you are currently funding and ask whether customers will still want it in ten years. Two piles. The resources belong on the certain one.
Channels, formats and algorithms change annually. Cheaper, faster, less hassle never do. Re-sort the budget on that test and most companies find they have bet the wrong way.
A need that does not change has no ceiling
Faster can always be faster; cheaper can always be cheaper. Improvements aimed at those never reach a day when they are done, so the moat can keep deepening indefinitely. An advantage built on a trend has a shelf life by construction: when the trend passes, the accumulation resets to zero.
Three days to next day to same day — each layer built on the last. Growth from riding a hot format starts over when the format does.
Long term does not mean slow, it means willing to look bad
The 1997 letter says it outright: decisions are made on long-term market leadership, not short-term profit or Wall Street's reaction. Betting on what does not change means years of putting profit back into logistics, with ugly statements and steady ridicule. The ticket price is sitting through that stretch.
Declaring long-term thinking while reviewing teams quarterly on short-term profit asks people to run a marathon on a sprinter's breathing. Until the review cycle changes, the strategy is wall decoration.
How do I use it today?
Where you are: the strategy meeting is all new trends and new tactics.
Ask first: what three things will our customers certainly still want in ten years, and what share of current spending is aimed at those three?
Where it goes wrong: using constancy as an excuse to ignore trends — embracing external trends is one of his own four. What does not change is the need; how you meet it has to change constantly.
Lines to keep
You can build a strategy around the things that are stable over time.
No customer will ever ask for higher prices and slower delivery.
We make decisions on long-term market leadership, not short-term reactions.
Same situation, other people are asking
Is switching tracks now too big a risk?Everyone's chasing the new thing. Do we have to?Two years in and I think it's the wrong thing.I know this is not it. Can I not just finish the year first?Do I change direction now · all 5 questions →If this one named what you are going through,
send it to someone who needs it, or keep it somewhere you will find it again.