The foldable isn't the future of the phone — it's a two-in-one for a subset of people
Foldables have sold into the tens of millions, but the inner screen gets opened less than 30% of the time. They won't replace the slab phone; for people who want a phone-plus-iPad two-in-one they're a plus, and for everyone else they're a minus that costs you grip and performance.
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The foldable's home turf is China and nowhere else
For all of 2025, China's foldable shipments broke ten million units, with Huawei taking 70% — a crushing share. But globally, China is the largest single market, accounting for more than 40% of shipments. Which is to say this category isn't evenly distributed the way other phone form factors are; its core user is the Chinese boss holding a Huawei foldable in first class and at social occasions. On the broad market, foldables are only 2.5% of global phone shipments, and only 15% of Huawei's own phone shipments.
— Liu FeiThe inner screen gets opened less than 30% of the time
Liu Fei used foldables as his daily driver for the better part of a month, and in the end he didn't want to keep them. The biggest problem wasn't the crease, wasn't the camera, wasn't the battery — it was the scenario. The inner screen doesn't get opened much: it's unstable one-handed and prone to shaking, and it's more for two-handed, held-in-both-hands situations — and in those situations he'd already be carrying a 10-inch iPad anyway. A Vivo vice president said at a launch event that foldables keep getting better, but the core way you use them is no different from seven years ago, and many users use the inner screen less than 30% of the time. His analogy: it's like carrying a phone case with a built-in power bank — your phone's weight goes up permanently, but most of the time you don't need to charge, so you'd be better off carrying a separate external power bank.
— Liu FeiOnce it gets wider, scrolling feeds actually gets worse
To accommodate the outer screen, wide-format foldables like the Huawei Pure X Max and the Apple iPhone Door got wider, and scrolling feeds on them becomes very bad. Xiaohongshu is fine, because it's been adapted; but scrolling Meituan to filter restaurants, or Taobao to filter shops, the amount of information each screen can hold suddenly shrinks. This isn't purely an adaptation problem, it's an aspect-ratio problem: list feeds run vertically, so widening is meaningless — the height shrinks, and you see less at a glance. He remembers ordering takeout on Meituan and only being able to see three restaurants at a time.
— Liu Fei76% more area, yet widescreen video looks smaller
A large foldable is nearly square when unfolded, which is a disaster for watching video and looking at photos. By screen area, opening the inner screen adds 76%, close to double; but if you're watching a widescreen movie, the foldable's inner screen actually loses about 10% of its effective area, because it can't fit it. Watching 16:9 content gets bigger, but only by 20%, which is relatively limited. Wide-format foldables have more sensible dimensions and higher effective area, but a 16:10 wide foldable playing a 16:9 video still leaves about 10% black bars top and bottom. The point isn't that area naturally increases — it's what you actually want to do with the inner screen.
— Liu FeiWho the two-in-one is a plus for
Liu Fei says the most important decision logic for whether you'd buy a foldable is: does it add to or subtract from your existing experience. He has a full set of devices himself — a Windows PC for gaming, a MacBook for work, an iPad for shows — so a foldable is pointless for him. But for a lot of young people, the phone is their only computing device, and a lot of work gets done on the phone, offline, so a bigger screen makes the experience much better. Salespeople who travel constantly and need to present a PPT to a client in a café get a much better result from the inner screen than the outer one. Put another way: what you're buying isn't a slab phone that turns into a tablet, it's a foldable iPad mini.
— Liu FeiWithout AirPods there'd be no Chinese podcasting
Liu Fei says the Apple Watch and AirPods developed during Cook's tenure are both world-changing products, and AirPods especially so: without AirPods ushering in the era of Bluetooth noise-cancelling headphones, you could say there'd be no podcast market — especially no Chinese podcast market. Chinese podcasting took off in sync with Bluetooth noise-cancelling headphones — because you're noise-cancelled, you can actually hear what someone is saying on your commute, at the gym, doing chores. Before that, those scenarios were usually for listening to music, or to content with very low information density.
— Liu FeiApple's kill shot is migrating the iPad ecosystem
The iPhone Door doesn't have such an exaggerated hardware advantage; it uses materials from a mature supply chain, weighs 254 grams, and doesn't feel dramatically different from Android flagship foldables. The core advantage is that Apple has the iPad: since the iPad launched in 2010, the 4:3 ratio has accumulated an enormous content ecosystem, and a lot of software was already optimised well enough for that ratio before foldable phones even existed, so it can be ported straight to the iPhone Door. For Android, that's a crushing level of ecosystem migration. Apple also did a lot of work on one-handed interaction, putting frequently used buttons on the dominant-hand side — that's a system-level design decision, and it's relatively easy for developers to follow and adapt to.
— Liu FeiHow you define success decides whether it succeeds
Whether the iPhone Door succeeds depends on how you define success. If you define it as replacing the slab phone, it's nearly impossible; if you define it as becoming a product line that keeps selling, it's very possible. A few million units in the first generation is no problem, and it might even push toward ten million — JD reservations have already passed 500,000-plus. Liu Fei says phone form factors won't converge, they'll diverge: the slab phone is the one form factor the whole world would vote for if there were only one choice, but other form factors will keep existing and keep differentiating, at every price point and in every shape. Foldables won't replace slab phones, even if performance, experience and price were exactly the same, because a substantial number of people simply have no need to open the inner screen.
— Liu FeiIn their own words · checked verbatim
Once it solves the crease problem, solves the problem of the quality of the folding experience, solves the price problem, maybe it really can become mainstream.
等它解决了折痕的问题 解决了折叠使用质量的问题 解决了价格的问题 可能它就真的能变成主流了
Liu Fei2:05
It's a bit like carrying a phone case with a built-in power bank — your phone's weight goes up permanently, but most of the time you don't need to charge, so you'd be better off carrying a separate external power bank.
有点像是你带了一个自带充电宝功能的手机壳 你这样你手机的重量就持续的有一个增加 但是你使用手机大部分时候你不需要充电 你就不如带一个单独的外挂的充电宝
Liu Fei22:25
If you compare by screen area, opening the inner screen directly adds 76% — very satisfying, close to double — but if you're watching a widescreen movie, the foldable's inner screen is actually smaller, because it can't fit it, and the effective area drops by about 10%.
如果按照屏幕面积对比的话 内屏打开会直接增加76% 非常爽 接近翻倍 但是如果看宽荧幕的电影画面 折叠机的内屏其实更小 因为它放不下 有效面积大概要减少10%
Liu Fei30:35
What you're buying isn't a slab phone that turns into a tablet, it's a foldable iPad mini.
你买的不是一个能变成平板的纸板手机 而是一台能折叠的iPad mini
Liu Fei38:42
Without AirPods ushering in the era of Bluetooth noise-cancelling headphones, you could say there'd be no podcast market — especially no Chinese podcast market.
如果没有AirPods带来蓝牙降噪耳机的时代 可以说就没有播客的市场 尤其是没有中文播客的市场
Liu Fei45:47
My judgment is that even if it fully matches the slab phone's performance and experience and every other dimension, and the price is the same, it will still be very hard to replace the slab phone, because a substantial number of people simply have no need to open the inner screen.
我的判断是哪怕完全达到直版手机的性能体验 和各方面的水平 价格也一样了 但依然很难替代掉直版手机 因为有相当一部分人压根没有打开内屏的需求
Liu Fei1:11:12
Figures
| Huawei's share of China's foldable market | 70% | 12:17 |
| China's share of global foldable shipments | more than 40% | 12:17 |
| Foldables' share of global phone shipments | 2.5% | 13:17 |
| Foldables' share of Huawei's own phone shipments | 15% | 13:17 |
| Increase in screen area when a foldable's inner screen is opened | 76% | 30:35 |
| Change in effective area when watching a widescreen movie on a foldable's inner screen | decrease of 10% | 30:35 |
| Weight of the iPhone Door | 254 grams | 57:04 |
| Liu Fei's odds of buying an iPhone Door | 30% to 35% | 1:16:14 |
Glossary
- all in one
- The need to replace multiple devices — phone, tablet, computer — with a single device.
- LUI / language user interface
- An interaction mode that replaces graphical interface operations with natural-language conversation.
- GUI / graphical user interface
- An interaction mode operated through visual elements such as icons, windows and buttons.
How to listen
Consumers on the fence about buying a foldable, product managers building hardware and phone products, and anyone watching Apple's product strategy and where phone form factors are heading.
You can fast-forward through the personal history and position-setting from 0:00 to 5:10; start listening at the shipment data at 12:17.