OpenAI says safety is why it won't IPO. Do you buy it?
Altman says going public now is "unwise," citing safety; meanwhile OpenAI is negotiating a $1.2 trillion raise, and the CFO has been shut out of investor meetings.
The video won't play here. Listen to the audio instead:
The argument · tap a timestamp to hear it
US households paid $820 more for this war
Waylon's indicator is $108 billion — the extra fuel cost US consumers have paid since the Iran war began in late February, gasoline and diesel combined, or about $820 per US household. The figure comes from Brown University's Climate Solutions Lab, which tracks it live on its website, the red number ticking ever upward. The method uses the average price over the 30 days before the war as a baseline, then adjusts for seasonality — people drive more in summer, demand is higher, prices were supposed to rise anyway. In other words, it's a counterfactual estimate of what oil would cost if this war hadn't happened. Diesel has already broken $6 a gallon, a record.
— Waylon WongDiesel costs land on your Amazon order
Most Americans don't drive diesel cars, but diesel prices hit them anyway. Trucks, trains, factories and farms all run on diesel, and the extra money paid at those links passes through to grocery prices and the cost of Amazon packages. Brown's tracker says this explicitly: higher diesel costs mean higher consumer prices, whether or not you fill up. This transmission chain is the key to the fertilizer segment later — diesel and fertilizer together push food prices up.
— Waylon WongOpenAI says no IPO while negotiating $1.2 trillion
Ricky's indicator is $1.2 trillion, the size of the latest funding round OpenAI is negotiating with private investors, per the Financial Times. At the same time, Sam Altman told Fortune he doesn't plan to take the company public, on the grounds that "with everything that's happening on the safety side, going public right now would be unwise." Ricky points straight at the oddity: if the product really is unsafe, why keep building it? Earlier this year The Information reported that Altman and CFO Sarah Fryer disagreed on IPO timing — Altman wanted to go public sooner, Fryer was worried about the company's spending.
— Ricky MulveyA CFO who doesn't report to the CEO is itself unusual
This is the most concrete information in the whole episode. Fryer does not report to Altman — that kind of relationship between a CEO and a CFO is very unusual. Altman has also been accused of excluding Fryer from some meetings with major backers, which is likewise unusual. On top of that, OpenAI filed a confidential S1 in June, meaning it disclosed its finances to regulators but not to the public. Ricky's inference: if OpenAI's IPO lands badly, that could be bad news for the whole stock and bond market propped up by the AI growth narrative. And if safety really is the issue, going public means being more transparent about financial health and, perhaps, the safety record — which is exactly why safety is now the worry.
— Ricky MulveyAnthropic is still pushing ahead with its own IPO
Ricky offers a metaphor: OpenAI is like a couple that has been together ten years and still can't decide whether to marry — you're worth a trillion dollars, it's time to grow up. Rival Anthropic, meanwhile, is still pushing ahead with its own IPO. Waylon chimes in that they're like Goldie Hawn and Kurt Russell — together a long time, raising kids together, never married. The conclusion: as long as OpenAI and Anthropic are happy, they don't need to go public, and they can whenever they want.
— Ricky MulveySulfur went from $170 to $1,100 a ton
Cooper's indicator is $1,100 — roughly what it costs to buy one metric ton of sulfur. The average price over the past decade was about $170, a rise of roughly 500%, a whole extra zero. Sulfur is a key input for fertilizer, and fertilizer is essential for growing food. The strange part: the US produces most of its own sulfur, domestic supply is fine, but several other major supply hubs are in the Middle East, China and Russia, all places with obvious tensions. Sulfur also has to pass through major Middle Eastern commercial waterways — Cooper names the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, saying they are being choked off.
— Cooper Katz McKimThe US produces its own sulfur and still can't dodge global prices
This is the oil logic: even if the US is a major producer, it isn't immune to a global price rise. Supply falls, and the price is pushed up for everyone. The scale of the increase has already changed the economics for fertilizer producers — a company called Mosaic told them it has idled two plants in Louisiana because of insufficient sulfur supply. This isn't a forecast, it's an impact that has already happened.
— Cooper Katz McKimDiesel plus fertilizer means food inflation rises another 3% to 5%
Connect the previous two: diesel at record highs plus a fertilizer shortage leaves the agriculture industry in a bad spot. Rabobank, a bank focused on agriculture, expects US food inflation to rise another 3% to 5% next year — after already rising 4% to 6% this year. Cooper says he put that number in this week's Indicator newsletter.
— Cooper Katz McKimIn their own words · checked verbatim
I actually think that given everything happening with safety, this would be right now would be an ill-advised moment to go public.
Ricky Mulvey4:07
It's safety. It's safety. That's why we can't take our company public. It's safety. But then, like, why are they still building their product if it's so unsafe?
Ricky Mulvey4:07
And they have some relationship problems like Fryer doesn't report to Altman, which is an unusual relationship between a chief executive officer and a chief financial officer.
Ricky Mulvey5:11
And right now, OpenAI, it's a little bit like a couple that's been together for a decade and still pondering if now is the right time to get married. Like, come on, you're worth a trillion dollars. You should be mature by now.
Ricky Mulvey6:11
So it's the same kind of thing happening to a barrel of oil. Even though the U.S. is a major producer, we're just not immune from global price increases.
Cooper Katz McKim8:18
There's one called Mosaic who told us they've had to idle two plants in Louisiana already because of low sulfur supplies.
Cooper Katz McKim8:18
Figures
| Extra fuel cost paid by US consumers since the Iran war began | $108 billion | 2:01 |
| Extra fuel cost per US household | about $820 | 2:01 |
| Diesel price | above $6 a gallon, a record | 3:01 |
| Size of the funding round OpenAI is negotiating | $1.2 trillion | 4:07 |
| Current sulfur price | about $1,100 per metric ton | 7:14 |
| Average sulfur price over the past decade | about $170 per metric ton | 7:14 |
| Number of Mosaic plants idled by the sulfur shortage | two in Louisiana | 8:18 |
| Rabobank's forecast for US food inflation next year | another 3% to 5% | 9:18 |
| US food inflation this year | already 4% to 6% | 9:18 |
Glossary
- confidential S1
- A filing that discloses IPO financials to regulators but not to the public.
- counterfactual
- An estimate of what a variable such as a price would have been if some event had not happened.
- metric ton
- 1,000 kilograms, a common unit of measure for commodities.
How to listen
Investors watching AI corporate governance and IPO timing, and macro observers who want to understand how diesel and fertilizer pass through to food prices.
The show teaser and sponsor read at the top, 0:00-1:00, can be skipped.