America's nuclear fuel cutoff countdown: must build domestic uranium enrichment by 2028
After the Cold War, America abandoned its uranium enrichment capacity and turned to importing Russian nuclear fuel; Congress set a 2028 ban, and General Matter must build domestic capacity by then.
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The argument · timestamps estimated from transcript position
The hardest part isn't the license, it's the fuel
Venture capitalist Scott Nolan spent a decade assuming new nuclear companies' biggest hurdle was getting NRC approval—until he asked them what was really hard and got an unexpected answer: fuel. America's 94 reactors generate 20% of its electricity, yet whether new or established, every company must import enriched uranium from Russia or Europe. The U.S. has no domestic commercial supplier. Congress has already passed legislation: effective January 1, 2028, Russian uranium imports are banned.
— Scott NolanSmaller reactors require higher-enrichment uranium fuel
To make small modular reactors (SMRs) compact enough for factory production, fuel enrichment must jump from today's 3-5% to nearly 20%—HALEU. Lower enrichment requires larger cores to maintain criticality; higher enrichment allows smaller cores and stretches refueling intervals from 18-24 months to 5-10 years. This matters most for reactors deployed in remote locations.
— Scott NolanThe AI boom hasn't yet driven nuclear power adoption
Though everyone talks about AI data centers spinning up with natural gas turbines, Scott Nolan says it barely affects their business. For the next few years, the real contracts come from utilities running those 94 existing grid reactors—even if data centers run on gas for now. The real inflection comes later, when baseload demand shifts to ‘safe, clean, reliable’. That's when it matters whether gigawatt-scale reactors or SMRs fill the gap.
— Scott NolanNuclear didn't get expensive because of Three Mile Island
Conventional wisdom blames Three Mile Island and Chernobyl for stopping nuclear. Nolan says safety concerns only accelerated the decline—the real culprit is that nuclear never achieved economies of scale. Each plant built itself, supply chains never formed, workers migrated between projects. Vogtle's cost overruns are brutal. Interest rates were at historic lows, yet 20% of the overrun came from interest costs. Over a decade build time, interest rates and schedule matter more than spot construction costs.
— Scott NolanPower utilities use cost-plus contracts; no one wants to cut prices
There's an incentive layer too. Utilities mostly operate on cost-plus contracts, outsourcing plant construction, so no one in the ecosystem has real pressure to cut costs. Nolan compares this to old-school space launch: without genuine market competition, everyone collects rent in their corner instead of racing on price.
— Scott NolanFuel costs can represent half of an SMR's total expense
Nolan uses SpaceX as a parallel: when satellites cost $1 billion, a $100 million launch was a small fraction. But smaller, cheaper satellites? Launch becomes the lever. Same with SMRs. The plant shrinks from a $10-billion megaproject, yet fuel costs rise as a fraction—fuel costs can hit 50% of levelized cost in some SMRs. It's the largest lever General Matter believes it can move.
— Scott NolanUranium enrichment technology hasn't been redesigned in fifty years
Cost advantage, Nolan says, comes from three sources: scale, simplified processes, and the one most overlooked—dormant technical progress. Globally, Russia, China, and two European companies all use the same underlying enrichment technology. Since the 1950s-60s, no one has redesigned it from scratch. Fifty years of technical improvements have never been applied to enrichment. That's the gap new entrants can exploit.
— Scott NolanAvoid competition first, then talk about scale
Reflecting on Founders Fund's investment philosophy, Nolan says the move is not to charge a trillion-dollar market on day one, but to find a small market with genuine need for a new solution, lock in those customers until they depend on you, then expand. Startup thresholds should be extreme: the mission must be critical, no one else is doing it, and it matches your capabilities. That intersection is tiny—which is why SpaceX, Anduril, and General Matter each emerged about a decade apart.
— Scott NolanIn their own words · checked verbatim
The US did a first-generation technology to win World War II to stay dominant in the Cold War. We were over 90% of supply, globally. It was nicknamed Megatons to Megawatts.
Scott Nolan0:00
Congress passed a ban on imports of Russian uranium. That ban goes into effect January 1st, 2028, so our first mission is produce HALEU before the end of the decade for all these reactors.
Scott Nolan0:00
You realize that the overnight cost of a plant, when they take 10 years to build, actually doesn't matter as much as interest rates and how long are you actually taking to build these things.
Scott Nolan15:27
You had utilities that are more like cost-plus organizations, and they're generally going to outsource the construction of the facility.
Scott Nolan17:56
the fuel cost matters proportionately more, to where some of these SMRs, their total LCOE could be 50% fuel cost with enrichment.
Scott Nolan32:27
There's economies of scale, there's simplicity, and then the third, honestly, is decades of technology improvement that no one's captured.
Scott Nolan44:11
Don't go after a trillion-dollar market on day 1, focus on a small market that really needs a new solution, and satisfy those customers.
Scott Nolan53:19
Figures
| Russian uranium import ban effective date | January 1, 2028 | 0:00 |
| Number of operating U.S. reactors and share of power | 94 reactors, 20% of U.S. electricity | 1:03 |
| U.S. enriched uranium imported from Russia | approximately one-quarter | 3:31 |
| Vogtle plant cost overruns from interest costs | 20% | 15:27 |
| Fuel cost share of LCOE in some SMRs | up to 50% | 32:27 |
| Paducah site search scope | over 10 states, 1,000+ parcels | 37:53 |
| U-235 abundance in natural uranium | 0.711% | 40:21 |
| General Matter non-dilutive funding | $900 million | 33:46 |
| General Matter team size | just over 200 | 25:20 |
Glossary
- HALEU
- Uranium enriched to approximately 19.75% for advanced small modular reactors
- SMR
- Small modular reactor—a new-generation reactor designed for factory production with a smaller core
- LCOE
- Levelized cost of electricity—construction and operating costs divided by total electricity output
- EPC
- Engineering, procurement, and construction—turnkey contracting integrating design, sourcing, and execution
- cost-plus
- Cost-plus contract—compensation based on actual cost plus fixed profit, lacking inherent pressure to reduce costs
How to listen
Investors and entrepreneurs focused on energy transition, hardware supply chains, and geopolitical risk; anyone wanting to understand how the nuclear fuel supply chain works.
Around 29:44: a Stripe Press book advertisement unrelated to nuclear content; safe to skip.