AI 預報颶風提前一週鎖定五級，靠的是統計不是物理

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we started to see the model becoming quite confident that it was going to turn into a category 5 hurricane, which is the strongest category of hurricane.

我們開始看到模型相當有信心地認為，它會變成五級颶風，也就是最強級別的颶風。

Peter Battaglia2:10

this was the lowest intensity storm that the National Hurricane center had ever forecast to become category 5. They they had never made a category 5 forecast from such a low intensity.

這是國家颶風中心有史以來預報會變成五級颶風的強度最低的風暴。他們從來沒有從這麼低的強度做出過五級預報。

Peter Battaglia5:10

we can't observe every butterfly. So there's a fundamental limit to what we can observe and that then translates to a fundamental limit in what we can predict.

我們沒法觀測每一隻蝴蝶。所以我們的觀測能力存在一個根本極限，這個極限又轉化成我們預報能力的根本極限。

Peter Battaglia12:11

if they're spaghetti plots and they're all over the place then the model is saying it's very difficult for us to understand what could happen and that's a very important thing because it's a fact of how we forecast weather. We cannot know certain things.

如果那些意大利麵圖到處都是，那模型就是在說：我們很難理解會發生什麼。這非常重要，因為這就是天氣預報的本質——有些事我們就是無法知道。

Peter Battaglia25:17

With AI models, their failure mode tends to be when they start to make errors, they tend to more just predict average weather. Like predicting the average weather is actually a pretty good way to predict weather. And it's actually the oldest way to predict weather.

AI 模型的失敗模式是：當它們開始出錯時，往往只是去預測平均天氣。而預測平均天氣其實是相當不錯的預報方式，實際上也是最古老的預報方式。

Peter Battaglia36:22

while the model might not have seen this specific instance of this storm at this location and this trajectory, it has seen intense weather in other parts of the globe

模型也許沒見過這場風暴在這個位置、這條路徑上的這個具體實例，但它在全球其他地方見過強天氣。

Peter Battaglia37:22

most weather observations are actually not even used by weather agencies. So, there's I actually think there's a ton of data. There's a ton of problems that haven't even been touched yet.

大多數氣象觀測其實根本沒被氣象機構使用。所以我真的認為有海量數據，有海量問題根本還沒被碰過。

Peter Battaglia39:22

I think we will move away from approximating the solutions to equations, but we're not moving away from physics. The data was also created by physics.

我認為我們會離開「近似求解方程」這條路，但我們不會離開物理。數據本身也是物理造出來的。

Peter Battaglia40:23

數字與實體

術語

numerical weather prediction數值天氣預報

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GraphCastGraphCast

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GenCastGenCast

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functional generative networks函數生成網絡

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spaghetti plots意大利麵圖

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