The Tycoons You Envy Are Survivors: 90% of Startups Don't Live Past Three Years
Xiao Lin says the common trait of big shots is "guts" — the willingness to take on risk. But that's the survivor's view: 90% of startups don't live past three years, and the risks taken by those who made it out are hidden by the spotlight.
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Before data drops, the trading floor goes dead silent
She says that when she was in school she couldn't understand financial news at all, and hearing "GDP is up" she had no idea what it had to do with her; only after starting work did she feel "the real connection between data and your job." The investment bank's trading floor is normally very loud — you have to shout to be heard a few rows away — but before US employment data is released, the whole floor really does go dead silent, everyone staring at screens; the moment the data comes out, client calls start coming in. What she wants to convey through her videos and book is exactly this connection: behind macroeconomic data there are stories related to life.
— Xiao LinYou can make VP and then stay VP forever
Promotion at an investment bank follows a pyramid ratio: you come in as an analyst, after about three years you move up to associate, after another three years to VP. VP is basically guaranteed — as long as you're not too bad and work hard, you'll get there. But above that, director is where elimination starts; if you never get promoted, "you might be a VP for the rest of your life." Above that is managing director, a very managerial level. Her own summary of the rules is two things: first, you have to have ability and rely on it; second, on that basis, read the situation clearly and understand current events.
— Xiao LinWhat made her dare to quit was a fallback
Before quitting to start her own business she agonized for about half a year, working her job while doing a side hustle. The turning point was her mentor — a senior alumna with a BlackRock background who had also quit to start her own business — who told her, "Just go out and do it. Worst case you do it for a year or two, and if it doesn't work out you go back and find a job." She says she's actually quite conservative and risk-averse, and wants a floor plan; only when she knows there's a fallback does she dare to move forward. Asked when she felt she no longer needed a fallback, she answered 2019, after the product was on track in all respects.
— Xiao LinA platform taking 20% commission couldn't survive
She started at the end of 2017 and formally quit in mid-2018. At first she wanted to build a consulting platform: she sent cold emails to many people on LinkedIn looking for mentors, and being rejected and questioned was routine; when someone replied in the middle of the night she'd pick up the phone and pitch like a salesperson. In the end she onboarded one or two hundred teachers, but hit a big obstacle when promoting it — people didn't buy into paying for consulting. The platform took a 20% commission, far from enough to sustain the business, and after about half a year she pivoted to education consulting services. It was only when looking for investors that she understood what they cared about was market size.
— Xiao LinHot topic plus story plus substance equals a hit
Her hit formula has only three things: "hot topic plus story plus substance equals a hit." First borrow a hot topic, and ideally the hot topic is itself a story — people have been learning lessons through stories since childhood, and accept and remember them more easily than frameworks and logic; then add substance so people feel they've gained something from listening, which makes it easy to spread. The accompanying topic-selection process is to first research heavily, judge whether there's a knowledge framework that can be extracted and whether it would be interesting to tell, then discuss it together into an outline, then refine it into a script, shoot, edit, add music, and publish.
— Xiao LinThe big shots you see are all survivors
She sums up the common traits of big shots with two words: "guts" and "substance." "Guts" because being able to reach that position means they took on the corresponding risk, but she stresses this isn't necessarily something everyone should pursue: what we see are the most brilliant, the ones who made it out, and "maybe 90% of startups don't live past three years" — many who took those risks died. "Substance" means being down-to-earth; people who truly make it have a lot of things at the cognitive level from the ground up, and the approach of just raising money definitely won't work.
— Xiao LinCollege is when the cost of trying is lowest
She says college is a particularly good period for trying things, because after starting work suddenly switching careers wastes a lot of time — three years have already passed, and in another industry you have to start from scratch, whereas in college you don't have that time cost. The threshold for finding an internship is really about being thick-skinned: when she was looking for her first internship in the US she directly said she didn't need pay and asked if she could help with work, and someone actually accepted; once you have that first stepping stone you can snowball, starting with very small companies and then applying a little higher. The hardest part is how to get that initial entry point, so you should do more internships and reach out more.
— Xiao LinTo analyze a big economy, start from the timeline
When she gets a big topic like a country, her entry point is the angle of history and development: giving you a Turkey or a US directly is too complex, but from its process from zero to one you can find some points or patterns worth telling, and then find key nodes in the timeline for extended analysis. She says researching companies is the same: look at how it grew step by step, why it pivoted at key nodes, what the market environment was at the time, and gradually you can see clearly why it became what it is now. She also mentions that the hardest part is finding "a line" through a pile of information and building a framework, which is more useful than memorizing details.
— Xiao LinIn their own words · checked verbatim
And then your colleague might be extremely irritable, he'll just — he'll smash his keyboard. That really happens.
再就是你很可能你的同事 就是他会非常的暴躁 他就会啊 他就会砸键盘 真的就是会发生的事情
Xiao Lin11:00
If you never get promoted, you might be a VP for the rest of your life.
如果说你一直都升不上 你可能就一辈子都是VP都有可能
Xiao Lin13:07
Just go out and do it. Worst case you do it for a year or two, and if it doesn't work out you go back and find a job.
你就出去干呗 大不了你干个一两年 不行你再回去找工作嘛
Xiao Lin15:11
Our platform's commission fee was only about 20%.
我们平台就是commission fee 就大概也就抽个20%
Xiao Lin16:12
There's a logic to content creation: hot topic plus story plus substance equals a hit.
内容创作这有一个逻辑 就叫热点加故事加干货等于爆款
Xiao Lin26:19
Maybe 90% of startups don't live past three years. What we see are definitely the ones that did well, but they actually took enormous, enormous risks.
创业可能90%的公司都活不过三年 我们看到的肯定是做的好的 但他们其实是take了巨大巨大的风险
Xiao Lin27:19
You can only ever earn money within your cognitive range. What you earn by luck, you'll always lose back through lack of skill.
你永远只能赚到你认知范围内的钱 你跑运气赚过来的 永远会靠实力亏光
Xiao Lin36:26
Figures
| Investment bank managing director starting salary | $500,000 base | 13:07 |
| Investment bank intern acceptance ratio | Three to four thousand applicants, a few dozen finally accepted | 10:04 |
| Xiao Lin's speaking pace | About 330 characters per minute | 24:17 |
| Consulting platform commission | 20% | 16:12 |
| Number of mentors onboarded to the platform | One to two hundred | 16:12 |
| Startup survival rate (as stated by Xiao Lin) | 90% don't live past three years | 27:19 |
| Japan's median population age | Nearly 50 | 33:23 |
| Production cycle for one video | Two to three weeks | 25:18 |
Glossary
- non-farm payroll
- A high-frequency US employment indicator that directly affects Fed decisions and market sentiment
- Content Marketing
- Using content valuable to users to naturally bring out a product, rather than hard advertising
- hikikomori
- People in Japan who shut themselves in for long periods and withdraw from society
How to listen
Young people who want to create personal content or are agonizing over whether to leave a big tech company or investment bank; practitioners curious about the internal promotion structure of investment banks and content production workflows.
The second half of the audience Q&A starting at 30:25 has a high degree of repeated questions; you can skip straight to the topic preview at 53:32.