Mercedes CEO: If the Market Isn't Fully Electric by 2030, We'll Build Both
Ola Källenius refuses to bet on a single technology path: he insists on launching a full EV lineup before 2030 while keeping both combustion and electric options. He judges China to be the fastest-moving, most competitive market — win there, and the odds of winning globally rise.
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Don't bet on pure electric — build both
Källenius admits Europe's pure-electric penetration is only about 13%, far below the 25% he expected five years ago, and North America is even below 10%. His response is not to double down on pure electric but to keep both options: insist on launching a full EV lineup before 2030, but if the global market hasn't reached 100% pure electric by 2030, offer both combustion and electric choices. He states plainly that the choice preserves brand value for customers rather than chasing numbers on the sales sheet. This is a CEO's typical posture of refusing to make a one-sided bet when the technology path is uncertain.
— Ola KälleniusChina's EV war isn't lost — but winning is in the high end
The host presses with data: China's EV penetration rose from 4.7% in 2019 to 47.6% in 2024 — has Mercedes already lost? Källenius answers "absolutely not," reasoning that electrification moves from the bottom up, from entry-level city cars to mid-size sedans, while Mercedes dominates the S-Class segment and holds the highest market share in the high-end sedan market. He acknowledges the total volume share is small but stresses that the high-end segment share is Mercedes' battlefield, and the next fight is in entry-level SUVs and C-Class cars.
— Ola KälleniusChina R&D shifts from for-China to for-the-world
Mercedes' old model was decisions made at German headquarters and executed elsewhere. Källenius says that model has changed: many actions start in China, and China's work also serves the whole world. He gives two concrete examples — the latest intelligent parking system was developed by the China R&D team and rolled out to global markets, and the new rear-seat entertainment system launching next year is also developed by the China team. He states clearly that more and more decisions are now not just in China for China, but in China for the world.
— Ola KälleniusMBOS is Mercedes' digital lifeline
Källenius uses a cooking metaphor: you can source ingredients from different places, but you must be the chef in charge. MBOS is that chef's tool — an overarching operating system that can integrate partners' software and also develop its own. He stresses that software for core vehicle functions like the battery management system is written by Mercedes itself, with over 20 years of experience, and its first EV was the Smart launched in 2007. His judgment: automakers need to become the architect of intelligent driving and control it, but they don't have to write every line of code — they can partner with Qualcomm, Tencent, and Amap — the key is to be the conductor of the band.
— Ola KälleniusBattery efficiency is the new currency of EVs
Källenius says battery efficiency is like a new currency for electric vehicles. Mercedes has deep vertically integrated R&D capability in battery chemistry, while also choosing to work with the best partners in the field to develop batteries tailored to Mercedes. He reveals they are working with two or three partners on different versions of solid-state batteries, researching high-silicon-content anode batteries, and one day may achieve 100% silicon anode batteries. Recently they also worked with a company on new technology that let an EQS sedan drive over 1,000 kilometers on a single charge. These are future technologies in R&D, to be used for customer needs only after testing and engineering are complete.
— Ola KälleniusAI driving is safer than humans — the zero-accident vision
Källenius says AI-driven computers will make better decisions than human drivers; many accidents worldwide are caused to some degree by human error, and eliminating that brings us closer to the zero-accident vision Mercedes has long pursued. He gives a concrete fact: Mercedes is the world's first company to truly bring a fully certified L3-level car to market, starting in Germany and followed by the US, with intelligent assisted driving speed raised from 60 km/h to 95 km/h. He calls this the most precious gift — getting some time back.
— Ola KälleniusDeepSeek proves innovation can happen overnight
Källenius recounts his reaction when he first read about DeepSeek: he called Gao Xu, the Chinese strategy chief working in both Beijing and Stuttgart, about the article; the reply was "let me take a look," and finally "it looks real." His judgment is that the company used original thinking to raise technology to a new level without spending much — this is not blind development. He says the company's success shows that with smarter methods, innovation can happen overnight, meaning in AI and generative AI development and how to use large language models, we can move faster and more economically.
— Ola Källenius51 vs 49 decisions — if wrong, change
Källenius describes his decision-making framework: usually when making a decision you know clearly what to do — either do it or don't, like choosing between A and B or 80 and 20. But sometimes due to uncertainty you don't know how the market will develop, and that's like 51 vs 49; normally you might pick 51, and it's very important not to consider face. But if you find the situation is the opposite and you originally picked 49, you must be prepared to change, because sooner or later you'll have to. His attitude is not to agonize, not to be trapped by what can't be undone; if you make a wrong decision, gather new information, be prepared, don't fear losing face, and keep moving forward.
— Ola KälleniusIn their own words · checked verbatim
Absolutely not. You have to look at how this transformation is happening in China. This is a once-in-a-century transformation.
绝对不是 你要看这一转变在中国是如何发生的 这是百年一遇的转变
Ola Källenius1:00
We chose to preserve brand value for our customers rather than chase numbers on the sales sheet.
我们选择为客户保留品牌价值 而不是冲击销售表上的数字
Ola Källenius7:11
So now more and more decisions are not just in China for China, but more in China for the world.
所以现在越来越多的决策 不仅仅是在中国为中国 更多则是在中国为世界
Ola Källenius17:21
The company's success shows that with smarter methods, innovation can happen overnight.
这家公司的成功表明 只要使用更聪明的方法 创新也可以一蹴而就
Ola Källenius33:53
Don't consider face. But if you find the situation is the opposite and you originally chose 49, then you must be prepared to change, because sooner or later you'll have to.
不要考虑面子 但如果发现情况相反 你当初选择了49 那你必须做好改变的准备 因为迟早要改
Ola Källenius45:00
Figures
| China EV penetration (2019) | 4.7% | 8:11 |
| China EV penetration (2024) | 47.6% | 8:11 |
| Europe pure-electric market share | about 13% | 7:11 |
| North America pure-electric market share | below 10% | 7:11 |
| Mercedes China sales last year | over 700,000 units | 5:08 |
| Mercedes investment in next-generation products in China | 14 billion RMB | 15:18 |
| All-new CLA CLTC range | 866 kilometers | 18:21 |
| All-new CLA energy consumption per 100 km | about 11,000 watt-hours | 18:21 |
| All-new CLA charging architecture | 800 volts, 10 minutes of charging for over 300 kilometers | 18:21 |
| EQS solid-state battery test single-charge range | over 1,000 kilometers | 26:25 |
Glossary
- MBOS / Mercedes-Benz Operating System
- Mercedes' self-developed overarching in-car operating system that can integrate partner software and control core functions like battery management.
- L3 / Level 3 autonomous driving
- A fully certified safety level, first permitted in Germany and followed by the US, with assisted driving speed raised from 60 to 95 km/h.
- CLTC / China Light-Duty Vehicle Test Cycle
- China's official range test standard; the top-range version of the all-new CLA is certified at 866 kilometers.
- ECU / Electronic Control Unit
- Electronic control modules in a car; a traditional car may have over a hundred, each requiring a separate software package to be purchased and integrated.
How to listen
Founders, investors, and engineers watching automotive electrification, intelligent driving, and multinational strategy in China; especially decision-makers who want to see how a legacy giant handles technology-path uncertainty.
The opening guest introduction and closing farewell can be skipped; the middle philosophical discussion on the definition of luxury cars carries low information value.