Trump's Moscow File Explains His Deference Better Than Any Policy Analysis
Russian intelligence has been surveilling Trump since the 1970s, with FSB officers stationed at the Ritz-Carlton around the clock. Luke Harding argues this file is the key to understanding Trump's attitude toward Putin.
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The argument · tap a timestamp to hear it
The Russians have been watching Trump for nearly fifty years
Harding, from communist Czechoslovak intelligence files he saw in Prague, shows that Czech intelligence began surveilling Trump in the 1970s when he married his first wife from behind the Iron Curtain. In 1987 the Soviet ambassador invited him to Moscow; he would have been bugged and recorded, and the file kept thickening. Harding stresses that the method of Russian spy agencies is not precision but "they know everything" — they are opportunists who go after many people, mostly without success, but "with Trump, they hit the jackpot."
— Luke HardingThe Ritz-Carlton had an FSB officer on 24-hour duty
Citing a Senate Intelligence Committee report, Harding says that at the Ritz-Carlton where Trump stayed in 2013, the FSB had a duty officer present 24 hours a day and there were cameras in the rooms. This means "there will be a Trump tape. There'll be multiple Trump tapes." Harding says we don't know what is on the footage — it could be Trump reading Anna Karenina and drinking chamomile tea at night, or it could be something more exotic arranged by the FSB, since the FSB controls Moscow's prostitution industry. But deep down Trump knows Putin has this file.
— Luke HardingTrump sees himself as Russia's co-victim
Harding agrees with Fiona Hill's judgment that Trump has "dictator envy" — he envies Putin's power and wealth. But Harding adds another layer: Trump now genuinely believes "Russiagate was a hoax," that Russia did nothing, and so he sees himself as a co-victim alongside Putin, smeared by the same "elaborate left wing conspiracy." Harding says this explains Trump's extreme sensitivity on Russia and his long-standing hostility toward Ukraine — he believes Ukraine helped Hillary in 2016.
— Luke HardingUkraine is simultaneously fighting North Korea, China and Iran
Harding says Ukraine is not just fighting Russia. North Korea sent 15,000 elite soldiers to the Kursk region, and he later met two of them, badly wounded and captured, in a prison in Kyiv. China supplies electronic components, optics and money, filling the gap in Western goods left by sanctions. Iran provided the original design for the Shahed drone, which Russia improved and localised. Harding calls this the "crink" or "axis of upheaval" — a moment for dictators, and Trump is doing the same thing from his own angle.
— Luke HardingThe captured North Korean soldiers can never go back
Harding met two North Korean prisoners of war in a Kyiv prison, numbered 121 and 126. Both had tried to kill themselves and failed — one was shot in the arm; the other, in the ambulance, thought he was being taken by the Russians and only realised they were Ukrainians when he saw the Stars and Stripes on the ambulance, and tried to reach for a grenade in his backpack, but it had already been taken. Harding says it was one of the strangest interviews: they know that if they return to North Korea they will be executed as traitors, yet they have a deep attachment to the only world they know. The older one is a talented painter; his sketchbook contains muscular North Korean special forces soldiers, Winnie the Pooh, young female contestants from a South Korean talent show, and a propaganda poster of Kim Jong Un. Harding says: "They are forever lost."
— Luke HardingRussia's drone factories run on semi-slaves from Africa
Harding went to the Russian drone factory in Alabuga. Most of the workers come from Africa — the factory advertises heavily in African-language media, especially targeting young Black women, promising high pay and a glamorous life. The actual work is endless shifts in a toxic and dangerous environment for extremely low pay. Harding says these "slave factories" produce hundreds of Russian drones, which then land on Ukrainian civilians. This is the connection he most wanted to show in the book: not simply Russia versus Ukraine, but a whole world order in flux.
— Luke HardingBritish politicians sell themselves very cheaply
Nathan Gill was the UKIP leader in Wales, elected as an MEP, with an office right next to Farage's. He was recruited by the Ukrainian-born journalist and diplomat Oleg Voloshin, who handed him 5,000 euros in cash bound with a rubber band in a white envelope, to give speeches in the European Parliament repeating Russian talking points. The money ultimately came from the pro-Russian Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk, whose youngest daughter has Putin as her godfather. Harding says Gill is the only one who went to prison, but all UKIP's MEPs were repeating Russian talking points, and Farage said on Russia Today that he admired Putin as an "operator." Harding's conclusion: British politicians sell themselves very cheaply — Russian politicians sell for millions of dollars, British politicians sell for a few banknotes in a dirty envelope.
— Luke HardingRussia's new strategy is to dismantle democracy from within Europe
Harding says Russia realises it cannot shake the European alliance backing Ukraine, but what it can do is undermine European democracy from within — backing far-right and far-left pro-Russian parties. The AfD scored a big win in the Saxony-Anhalt election, making no secret of its pro-Russian stance, even wanting schools to teach Russian again and restore relations. Italy and France also have elections coming up. Harding says Russia's goal is to put Kremlin-friendly parties in power, and the other big power backing this idea is the United States under Trump and Vance.
— Luke HardingIn their own words · checked verbatim
It's not that the Russian spy agencies are immaculate and they know anything. It's mainly they know everything. They have a method and they're opportunists.
Luke Harding5:12
So what that means is there will be a Trump tape. There'll be multiple Trump tapes.
Luke Harding6:15
he's got dictator envy. He'd love to have the power. He'd love to have the wealth. He'd love to have the ability to drop people out of windows and all the other stuff that Putin does.
Luke Harding7:20
And these two soldiers were profoundly lost. And they just did not have the critical – they had no critical ability at all to interpret what was going on, to interpret the world.
Luke Harding12:38
Russia, for all of its kind of great power pretensions, has got an economy smaller than Italy's and is a model for nobody.
Luke Harding15:49
if you're a Russian politician, you sell yourself for millions of dollars. So if you're a British politician, you sell yourself for, you know, a few notes in a grubby envelope
Luke Harding23:13
I think what Putin is trying to do now is pure nihilism, which is just to destroy Ukraine completely, so it can no longer function as a society, as a place of education or a place where you would want your kids to grow up
Luke Harding29:37
Figures
| Number of elite North Korean soldiers sent to Kursk | 15,000 | 9:24 |
| Amount of cash Nathan Gill received | 5,000 euros | 19:01 |
| Prison sentence given to Nathan Gill | 10 years | 20:10 |
| Amount corresponding to one postcard | 1,000 euros | 23:13 |
| Number of books destroyed | 12 million | 30:43 |
Glossary
- FSB
- The main successor to the Soviet KGB, responsible for Russia's domestic security and counterintelligence.
- crink
- An acronym for China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, referring to the alignment of these authoritarian states.
- axis of upheaval
- A term used to describe the group of states — China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and others — seeking to overturn the Western-led order.
- dictator envy
- Fiona Hill's phrase for Trump's envy of Putin's power and wealth.
- AfD
- The German far-right party, which holds pro-Russian positions and scored a big win in the Saxony-Anhalt election.
How to listen
Readers following geopolitics, Russian intelligence operations and the trajectory of British and American politics; anyone who wants to understand the mechanism behind the Trump-Putin relationship.
The audience Q&A (after 24:17) is scattered; you can just listen to Harding's answers on whether Ukraine can hold out and on the AfD.