中美AI差距只有六到八个月：全面封杀蒸馏也拖不了太多

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that plot, for example, just shows a 2X a month increase in Codex spending by researchers, and that does seem to me to be some evidence of they’re getting a lot of value out of this probably. I don’t think this is strong evidence that in six months we have a software intelligence explosion.

那张图表明，研究员使用Codex的开支大约每月增长两倍，这确实说明他们从中获得了不少价值。但我不认为这是「六个月内出现软件层面智能爆炸」的强证据。

JS Denain0:00

I think an analogy I have is, I think that junior PhD students will be 10X as productive, but from the advisor’s perspective, their research agenda will not proceed 10X as fast.

我的类比是：初级博士生的产出可能真的会快十倍，但从导师的角度看，整个研究议程未必会因此快十倍。

Nathan Lambert9:38

if you look at data centers in the US, there has been extremely fast build-out. If you had robots that were just literally able to substitute for blue-collar human workers, I feel like the financial incentives would be huge.

看看美国数据中心的建设速度就知道扩张有多快。如果机器人真的能直接替代蓝领工人，我觉得财务上的激励会大到足以推动建设。

JS Denain20:35

so currently if I’m saying six months gap, then in six months, it’s probably not literally 12 months, right? So, my guess is, yeah, you are at like eight or nine, something like that. You go from like six to nine maybe.

如果现在说差距是六个月，那六个月之后应该不会变成整整十二个月。我的猜测是大概会到八九个月左右，从六个月变成九个月左右。

JS Denain27:39

I think the Claude routers just give you a bunch of useful data to train on, and that will generally improve capabilities. I think that’s one explanation.

Claude的路由器能给你一大批有用的训练数据，这本身就会普遍提升能力，我认为这是一种解释。

JS Denain29:50

four-minute mile style effects of like, you show that something is possible at all and then people have the conviction to go down that route, don’t waste a ton of resources exploring a bunch of other things, is the thing you’re pointing at here.

这是一种「四分钟一英里」式的效应：你先证明一件事完全可行，别人就有信心走这条路，不必再把大量资源浪费在探索其他方向上。

JS Denain38:27

there’s definitely clearly examples like this one, or really the Stolen Thoughts paper or something. It just seems like the safeguards weren’t good enough to prevent that from happening, even though there’s strong incentives for the companies to prevent it.

确实有像这次事件、或者Stolen Thoughts论文这样明确的例子。看起来护栏并不足以阻止这些事发生，尽管公司有很强的动机去防止。

JS Denain48:46

数字与实体

术语

RSI递归自我改进

AI系统反过来加速AI研究本身的自我强化循环

ECIEpoch能力指数

Epoch AI用来衡量和比较模型能力水平的综合指标

distillation蒸馏

用强模型的输出数据训练弱模型，从而快速获得部分能力

four-minute mile effect四分钟一英里效应

一旦有人证明某事可行，后来者不必再摸索就能跟进复现

jaggedness参差前沿

AI能力在不同任务上进步极不均匀，强弱交错的状态

Goodharted古德哈特化

一旦指标被当作优化目标，它就不再能反映真实情况

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