AI 债务正在和美元抢钱，美国经济其实在通缩

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And it's more than 60% of AI financing is now debt, is debt financed up from something like 15 to 20% a year ago. And it's now the largest piece of the investment-grade marketplace. It's now the largest piece of the high-yield marketplace. It is literally taking over global debt markets.

现在 AI 融资里超过 60% 是债务融资，一年前这个比例大概是 15% 到 20%。它现在是投资级市场里最大的一块，也是高收益市场里最大的一块。它正在字面意义上接管全球债务市场。

Paul Kedrosky4:08

So in a sense we're created this global now illusory phenomenon. that's being driven by this incredibly anomalous spending and much of which is concentrated on one specific thing, these things we, we, we call GPUs

所以某种意义上我们制造了一个全球性的、现在已经是幻觉的现象，它由这种极其反常的支出驱动，而且大部分集中在一件具体的东西上——我们称之为 GPU 的东西。

Paul Kedrosky7:10

Back those pieces out, and by my math, the U.S. is actually in a deflationary mode, about a quarter of a percent.

把这两块剔出去，按我的计算，美国实际上处于通缩状态，大约 0.25%。

Paul Kedrosky20:33

So a balance sheet is recession is a workout where heavily indebted companies, irregardless of interest rates, continue to try and get themselves less leverage, get the debt off their balance sheets.

所以资产负债表衰退就是一场 workout：负债沉重的公司不管利率高低，都持续试图降低杠杆、把债务从资产负债表上拿掉。

Paul Kedrosky23:36

So every time you see rates increase, say to yourself instead, oops, it just got a lot more expensive and difficult for data centers to justify this. the future cash flows on top of which they're building these data centers.

所以每次你看到利率上升，就该对自己说：糟糕，数据中心要证明自己未来现金流的能力，又变得更贵、更难了一大截——而它们正是基于这些未来现金流在盖数据中心。

Paul Kedrosky30:48

So if I cut out all of the things that are costing me a lot of money, and then I calculate EBBT, not EBIT, but EBBT, earnings before bad things, then my cash flow is tremendous.

如果我把所有花大钱的东西都砍掉，然后算 EBBT——不是 EBIT，是 EBBT，earnings before bad things，坏事之前的盈利——那我的现金流好得不得了。

Paul Kedrosky39:00

And so we're now in this moment where the companies at the center of all of this are in this kind of Minsky moment where the financialization of what they're doing is so large and so broad it's affecting everything. But at the same time, they're all very eager to dump the shares and get them out there at a credibly large scale to retail investors.

所以我们现在处在这样一个时刻：处于这一切中心的公司正处在某种明斯基时刻——它们所做之事的金融化规模如此之大、如此之广，影响到了一切。但与此同时，它们又都非常急于把股票抛出去，以可信的大规模卖给散户投资者。

Paul Kedrosky46:10

数字与实体

术语

balance sheet recession资产负债表衰退

企业不管利率高低都专注去杠杆、还债，导致长期不投资不招人的衰退形态。

Minsky moment明斯基时刻

金融化脱离底层现实后加速、随后崩断的时刻。

AMT替代性最低税

美国税法，员工低价行权期权即产生纳税义务，即使股票没卖出。

hurdle rate门槛回报率

项目必须达到的最低回报率，低于它投资者就不出钱。

EBBT坏事之前的盈利

Kedrosky 自造词，把花钱的部分全砍掉后算出的现金流。

token maxingtoken 拉满

客户不计成本地大量消耗 token，制造出收入脉冲式增长。

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