美國債務破 40 萬億：連鴿派都改口當鷹派了

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So the scary thing about high debt is that you can get a snowballing of debt because of interest costs. And when you're paying a lot of interest and then you're running a larger deficit because you're paying a lot of interest, that adds to the debt. And then you get to the next period and you have more debt. And then you have more interest. And so it just keeps compounding and getting worse and worse and worse.

高債務可怕的地方在於，利息成本會讓債務滾雪球。你付很多利息，因為付了很多利息所以赤字更大，赤字又加到債務上。到了下一期債務更多，利息也更多，就這樣不斷複利，越來越糟。

Karen Dynan2:05

It seems like we don't have a good way of knowing whether we're 5% away from the ice cracking or 50% away from the ice cracking.

我們似乎沒有好辦法知道，自己離冰面裂開是還差 5%，還是還差 50%。

Karen Dynan4:18

The fact that Reinhardt and Rogoff's findings are wrong should therefore lead us to reassess the austerity agenda itself in both Europe and the United States.

Reinhardt 和 Rogoff 的發現是錯的，這一事實因此應當促使我們重新評估歐洲和美國自身的緊縮議程。

Andrea Presbitero12:28

But we didn't say that suddenly you go to the devil when you get to 91%. That's a little bit like saying if you're driving in a car in a 55-mile-an-hour speed limit and you go to 56, you're going to crash the next minute.

但我們沒說到了 91% 你就會突然見鬼去。這有點像說，限速 55 英里你開到 56 英里，下一分鐘就會撞車。

Kenneth Rogoff20:57

But I do want to qualify that a little bit by saying to say, therefore, there's no threshold. Therefore, any level of debt is fine. That's kind of nuts also.

但我想稍微限定一下：如果說因此就沒有門檻、因此任何水平的債務都沒問題，那也有點瘋狂。

Kenneth Rogoff21:05

I am a debt hawk now. Given how things have evolved, we have seen things happen in financial markets, particularly treasury borrowing rates, that have made me think this is a bigger challenge than I thought it was a couple years ago.

我現在是債務鷹派了。考慮到事情的演變，我們看到金融市場、尤其是國債借款利率上發生的情況，讓我覺得這比我兩年前想的更棘手。

Karen Dynan25:22

I do think that the odds that we have a very significant problem are bigger than 50-50. They're not the end of the world. And frankly, having a debt crisis is not the end of the world. But I think something very significant is going to happen and we're not ready for it.

我確實認為我們遇到非常嚴重問題的概率大於五成。那不是世界末日，坦白說債務危機也不是世界末日。但我認為會有很重大的事情發生，而我們沒有準備好。

Kenneth Rogoff28:32

數字與實體

術語

deficit hawk / deficit dove赤字鷹派 / 赤字鴿派

鷹派主張削減赤字、緊縮開支；鴿派認為必要時該大膽花錢刺激經濟。

crowding out擠出效應

政府發債吸走資金，導致私人投資（建廠、研發）減少，從而拖累增長。

debt to GDP ratio債務佔 GDP 比例

一國債務總額相當於全年產出價值的百分比，是衡量債務負擔的常用指標。

Treasury bonds美國國債

美國政府為借錢而發行的欠條，被視為全球最安全的投資之一。

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