Zelensky: The Middle East War Is Draining Ukraine's Air Defense Missiles
The US makes only 60 to 65 missiles a month, and 803 were fired on the first day of the Middle East war. Zelensky says what Putin wants is a long war, because running out of resources hurts Ukraine.
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The Middle East war directly drains Ukraine's air defense missiles
Zelensky says the Middle East war's impact on Ukraine is direct: a global fuel shortage and, more importantly, air defense missile supply being squeezed. He states plainly that "there will be a reduced number of missiles for our defense." He is already looking for alternatives, because Ukraine ran short of anti-missile missiles this past winter, and the next winter is still coming. He also says the US diplomatic focus is now on the Middle East, and trilateral talks keep getting postponed for one reason only: the Iran war.
— Volodymyr ZelenskyyWhat Putin wants is exactly a long war
Zelensky's judgment is that for Putin, a long war in Iran is a plus. The reason is not just energy prices, but that it consumes US stockpiles and the production capacity of air defense missile makers. When the US needs extra resources it turns to Europe, and Europe as an ally gives them. The result is that resources do not flow to Ukraine. Zelensky says Putin needs to weaken Ukraine, and the Middle East is one of the ways to do that.
— Volodymyr ZelenskyyThe US makes a month's worth of missiles; the Middle East burns them in a day
Zelensky gives a set of concrete numbers: the US produces 60 to 65 missiles a month, roughly 700 to 800 a year. On the first day of the Middle East war, 803 were used. He says Middle Eastern countries used PAC-3 to intercept drones early in the war, because PAC-3 can hit any aerial target. The question now is when Middle East stockpiles run out. His conclusion: Ukraine will certainly face a missile shortage.
— Volodymyr ZelenskyyWhat Ukraine wants is production licenses, not sympathy
Zelensky's demands of Western leaders are specific: unity first, speed second. He says the war made Ukraine number one in military technology, not because it is smarter, but because it has underground manufacturers. What he wants is for European friends to give Ukraine's industrial sector the maximum licenses, rights and opportunities so Ukraine can produce the weapons it lacks itself. He says this is Ukraine's first interest.
— Volodymyr ZelenskyyTrump wants to end the war but does not want to pick a side
Zelensky says he believes Trump genuinely wants to end the war, because Trump promised voters and wants to finish quickly. But Trump's strategy is to keep close dialogue with Putin and not provoke him, while not fully siding with Ukraine. Zelensky says Trump positions himself as a mediator, not on either side. Ukraine wants Trump on Ukraine's side, because the more countries stand with Ukraine, the more pressure on Russia. But the US has its own strategy.
— Volodymyr ZelenskyyPutin is not ready to sign any agreement, only to dictate an ultimatum
Zelensky says Putin is not ready to sign any agreement; what he wants is for Ukraine to sign an ultimatum. Putin understands that giving up the Donbas means splitting Ukrainian society, and a split society can be exploited. Zelensky says Putin's goal is division, because a divided country is a weak country that can be occupied further. He says Ukraine is ready to compromise, especially if the US is involved, but the US has not demanded major compromises from Russia.
— Volodymyr ZelenskyyBe as fair to the Russian regime as to Iran
Zelensky says the West must be fair toward different regimes. If there is a certain attitude toward Maduro or the Iranian regime, the same attitude should apply to the Russian regime, because they are no different on human rights, freedom or nuclear threats. He says the first step should be a diplomatic solution, but in a tough way that gives Putin the same terms as other regimes. He states plainly that toppling the regime is step two; step one is diplomacy.
— Volodymyr ZelenskyyIf Ukraine joins NATO, the war is over
Zelensky reiterates that he is willing to give up his position if it buys NATO membership. He says if NATO recognizes Ukraine's army as one of Europe's strongest, he is willing to consider his work done. He says if Ukraine were in NATO, the war would be over. He also says he does not think there is a big problem in the relationship between Trump and Starmer, and that history is stronger than the emotions of two or three people.
— Volodymyr ZelenskyyIn their own words · checked verbatim
Putin will want a long war. For Putin, a long war in Iran is a plus. In addition to energy prices, it means the depletion of US reserves and the depletion of air defense manufacturers.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy4:04
And today, America produces 60 to 65 missiles per month. Imagine, 65 missiles per month is about 700 to 800 missiles per year produced each year, yeah? And on the first day in the Middle East war, 803 missiles were used.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy5:05
We need to gather our strengths. Unity is number one. Speed is number two.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy6:07
No, he's not ready to sign any agreement. He wants us to sign an ultimatum with all those future risks that he understands, by the way.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy12:27
If Ukraine is in NATO, the war is over. The war is over.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy20:36
Your history is stronger than the emotions of two or three people. Your history is simply stronger.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy21:38
Figures
| US monthly missile production | 60 to 65 | 5:05 |
| US annual missile production | about 700 to 800 | 5:05 |
| Missiles used on the first day of the Middle East war | 803 | 5:05 |
Glossary
- PAC-2 / Patriot Advanced Capability-2
- An interceptor missile variant of the US Patriot air defense system, used to intercept aircraft and cruise missiles.
- PAC-3 / Patriot Advanced Capability-3
- A more advanced Patriot interceptor missile variant, capable of intercepting ballistic missiles and drones.
- Shahed drones
- Iranian-made suicide drones that Russia uses to attack Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
How to listen
Founders and investors watching geopolitics, the defense supply chain and the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war, especially those who want to understand how the Middle East war indirectly reshapes European security.
The last five minutes on family and children, low information density, can be skipped.