His Greatest Mistake Wasn't Fraud—It Was Three Years of Silence
Billy Evans recounts how the judge required fighting "in court, not in media," and Holmes obeyed so scrupulously she said nothing to press throughout; he contends this silence was her greatest mistake—her power has always come from telling her story.
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He met a person first, then found out who she was
They connected at a San Francisco party in October 2017, when the Carreyrou series was everywhere and Holmes was widely viewed as a fraud. What Billy saw was a girl in a fishing hat with a bandage on her face—someone whose focus and curiosity made him feel "completely seen." Only when they started talking about work did he realize who she was. This shapes his core disagreement with the outside world: everyone else read the story first and judged the person; he knew the person first and was forced to contend with the narrative later.
— Billy EvansShe was calm as a cucumber because she genuinely believed she was innocent
Three weeks after meeting, Holmes was indicted. Billy describes her response as "calm as a cucumber"—not detachment, but genuine conviction that she and the company had done nothing wrong. She'd been repeatedly told prosecution wasn't coming before it actually happened. Their mutual reaction to the cascade of bad news wasn't "we knew this was coming" but "this shouldn't be unfolding like this."
— Billy EvansThe revenue gap wasn't fabricated—it was Walgreens' broken contract
One widely cited piece of "fraud evidence" is the vast gap between Theranos's revenue forecasts and what it actually brought in. Billy presents a different chain of causation: Theranos had a contract with Walgreens for approximately 800 stores, which should have delivered corresponding revenue. After negative press created public backlash, Walgreens unilaterally stopped performing the contract. Theranos couldn't collect because Walgreens didn't fulfill its end. The shortfall wasn't fiction—it was an actual obligation that went unmet.
— Billy EvansProsecutors targeted four patients out of 12.5 million; the jury acquitted all four
Holmes was indicted on 13 counts. The government spent years investigating approximately 12.5 million patient tests Theranos conducted over 18 months and ultimately singled out just four patients to accuse of receiving false results. These "patient fraud" charges were all acquitted by the jury. Billy emphasizes that the diagnostic industry tolerates a certain error rate; four cases in 12.5 million have no statistical meaning. What she was actually convicted of was defrauding three specific investors and conspiring with her former business partner—and that conspiracy conviction gave the judge the basis to substantially increase her sentence.
— Billy EvansSilence imposed by the judge became her greatest error
The judge's pretrial order: fight this case "in court, not in media." Holmes observed that instruction with what Billy calls "obsessive" obedience, staying silent to the press from investigation through the appeal decision last April, even as coverage, books, and podcasts piled up everywhere. Billy says this was one of her greatest mistakes. Her actual power has always been the ability to tell her story; by honoring the judge's order, she surrendered the only tool that could have reshaped the narrative.
— Billy EvansThe minimum-security camp wasn't minimum in any way
She's serving time at Bryan federal prison camp in College Station, Texas. Everyone says "camp" is the cushiest prison category. Billy says otherwise. As of the interview, she'd been inside for 1,205 days, and every single one has been brutal. On visiting days, out of 800 female inmates, typically only about 30 have any visitors on a given weekend. He calls that scene "heartbreaking." Billy notes he's not alone in this—130 million Americans have or will have a family member who's been incarcerated.
— Billy EvansThe sentence math: trading time served for early release, 70% deducted for restitution
Holmes was ordered to pay $435 million in restitution. Billy explains that less than $100 million of this is officially recognized as actual economic harm; the remainder came from prosecutors adding the Walton and DeVos families plus eight other major investors to the restitution claims, which pushed the sentence from an initial 4.5 to 5 years up to 135 months. Any money deposited in her prison account gets 70% deducted to go toward restitution. Under the First Step Act, signed during Trump's first term, she earns 16 days of sentence reduction for every 30 days of completed programming, putting her projected release into a halfway house in Q2 of next year.
— Billy EvansHis new company uses light to feed data to AI, not to diagnose patients
Billy previously worked on Luminar's lidar division. He's now founded Hamanthus, which applies Raman spectroscopy—shining light on biological samples and analyzing scattered-light color shifts to reverse-engineer chemical composition—to create cheaper, smaller sensors. These devices currently cost millions and take up huge space; his goal is making them affordable and accessible. But the output feeds AI for pattern analysis, not diagnostic conclusions sent directly to doctors the way Theranos attempted. He jokes that media prefer portraying him as "El Chapo running a diagnostics cartel from prison" rather than "Billy, who started a nerdy company."
— Billy EvansIn their own words · checked verbatim
She was infinitely curious about the smallest things that nobody else really cared about were too, you know, cool to, to pretend like it mattered.
Billy Evans4:11
this is somebody that fundamentally believes in their innocence.
Billy Evans8:17
Liz ran about 12 and a half million tests on patients at Theranos over an 18 month period.
Billy Evans19:34
Because her power was in her voice. Her power was in her telling that story.
Billy Evans23:40
There's 130 million Americans who have a family member that will be incarcerated.
Billy Evans27:44
I love you more than everything. And she looked at me and she said, now we are free.
Billy Evans30:45
it's a lot easier to make it seem like Elizabeth Holmes is El Chapo running a diagnostics cartel from prison than it is to say Billy's building a nerdy company.
Billy Evans41:06
Figures
| Final sentence length | 135 months | 21:39 |
| Total indictment count | 13 | 19:34 |
| Restitution ordered | $435 million | 37:01 |
| Prison account deduction rate | 70% | 37:01 |
| Walgreens stores in contract | approximately 800 | 15:33 |
| Days served as of interview | 1,205 | 27:44 |
| Americans with incarcerated family members | 130 million | 28:44 |
| Sentence reduction earned per 30 days served | 16 days | 35:57 |
Glossary
- First Step Act
- A federal prison-reform law signed during Trump's first term that allows incarcerated people to trade completed rehabilitation programs for sentence reductions.
- Raman spectroscopy
- A detection method using light shined on samples to analyze scattered-light color shifts and reverse-engineer chemical composition.
- BOP
- The Bureau of Prisons—the U.S. federal agency that oversees the federal prison system.
How to listen
Entrepreneurs and readers with some familiarity with Theranos, curious about the insider family view and the reality of serving federal time.
0:00–3:38, their initial pleasantries at first meeting; skipping this doesn't affect understanding of what follows.