股票和債券的風險其實一樣大，只是沒人告訴你

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I mean, I certainly take the view that finance and social science in general is not a science. You don't have this access to universal statements. But often people think that we do, and that can be dangerous in times of regime change.

我確實認為，金融以及整個社會科學都不是科學。你無法獲得普適性的陳述。但人們常常以為可以，這在 regime 轉換的時期是危險的。

Inigo Fraser-Jenkins9:03

rather than talking about diversification in a sense of trying to find things that have a low correlation amongst themselves, we're talking about diversification across different possible paths of the future.

我們談的不再是尋找彼此低相關性的資產那種分散化，而是跨未來不同可能路徑的分散化。

Inigo Fraser-Jenkins14:11

if you look at the volatility of 20-year holding periods, then essentially the vol of stocks and bonds are equal. Or phrased another way, the probability of a real loss on bonds becomes greater than the probability of a real loss on equities once you extend out beyond a few business cycles.

如果看20年持有期的波動率，股票和債券的波動率基本相等。換個說法，一旦把期限拉長到超出幾個商業週期，債券發生實際虧損的概率就變得高於股票。

Inigo Fraser-Jenkins31:46

my view is tax rates are going up, you know, at some horizon. And so the combination of the two views imply that the value to a taxable investor of the tax planning actually becomes a larger share of the take-home returns than they've had for many years.

我的看法是，稅率在某個時間尺度上會上行。這兩個判斷疊加意味著，對需要繳稅的投資者來說，稅務籌劃在稅後收益裡佔的份額會比過去很多年都大。

Inigo Fraser-Jenkins40:06

we showed in a paper a while ago that the number of equity indices in the world was already measured in the millions, whereas there only are about 45,000 stocks all in in the world, including small caps.

我們之前在一篇論文裡展示過，全球股票指數的數量早已以百萬計，而全世界股票總共只有大約45000只，還包括小盤股。

Inigo Fraser-Jenkins42:08

there is no such thing as a default natural cross-asset benchmark. I mean, some people would say, oh, well, surely it's 60-40. Well, yes, 60-40 is often the default allocation people use, but it happens to have done well in the last 40 or 50 years. But there's no theoretical basis for it, really.

根本不存在一個天然的默認跨資產基準。有人會說，那不就是60-40嗎。是的，60-40 常被當作默認配置，但它只是過去四五十年恰好表現好，其實沒有理論基礎。

Inigo Fraser-Jenkins43:11

I would argue that that shift since 22 to the correlation of asset classes being positive is firstly, a return to normality. So if you go back over the 200 years prior to the last 30 years, that correlation was positive most of the time.

我認為2022年以來資產類別相關性轉正，首先是回歸常態。回看過去30年之前的200年，這個相關性大部分時間是正的。

Inigo Fraser-Jenkins47:22

數字與實體

術語

total portfolio approach總組合方法

不以資產類別為首要維度，而是按驅動組合的基本因子整體分配風險。

rule against perpetuities禁止永續權規則

普通法原則，強制家族財富在約100年內回到個人手中，從而被徵稅。

recency bias近因偏差

把近期經驗當作常態，Inigo 認為這是長期投資者最大的敵人。

60-4060-40 組合

六成股票四成債券的默認配置，Inigo 認為它沒有理論基礎。

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