AI 債務正在和美元搶錢，美國經濟其實在通縮

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And it's more than 60% of AI financing is now debt, is debt financed up from something like 15 to 20% a year ago. And it's now the largest piece of the investment-grade marketplace. It's now the largest piece of the high-yield marketplace. It is literally taking over global debt markets.

現在 AI 融資裡超過 60% 是債務融資，一年前這個比例大概是 15% 到 20%。它現在是投資級市場裡最大的一塊，也是高收益市場裡最大的一塊。它正在字面意義上接管全球債務市場。

Paul Kedrosky4:08

So in a sense we're created this global now illusory phenomenon. that's being driven by this incredibly anomalous spending and much of which is concentrated on one specific thing, these things we, we, we call GPUs

所以某種意義上我們製造了一個全球性的、現在已經是幻覺的現象，它由這種極其反常的支出驅動，而且大部分集中在一件具體的東西上——我們稱之為 GPU 的東西。

Paul Kedrosky7:10

Back those pieces out, and by my math, the U.S. is actually in a deflationary mode, about a quarter of a percent.

把這兩塊剔出去，按我的計算，美國實際上處於通縮狀態，大約 0.25%。

Paul Kedrosky20:33

So a balance sheet is recession is a workout where heavily indebted companies, irregardless of interest rates, continue to try and get themselves less leverage, get the debt off their balance sheets.

所以資產負債表衰退就是一場 workout：負債沉重的公司不管利率高低，都持續試圖降低槓桿、把債務從資產負債表上拿掉。

Paul Kedrosky23:36

So every time you see rates increase, say to yourself instead, oops, it just got a lot more expensive and difficult for data centers to justify this. the future cash flows on top of which they're building these data centers.

所以每次你看到利率上升，就該對自己說：糟糕，數據中心要證明自己未來現金流的能力，又變得更貴、更難了一大截——而它們正是基於這些未來現金流在蓋數據中心。

Paul Kedrosky30:48

So if I cut out all of the things that are costing me a lot of money, and then I calculate EBBT, not EBIT, but EBBT, earnings before bad things, then my cash flow is tremendous.

如果我把所有花大錢的東西都砍掉，然後算 EBBT——不是 EBIT，是 EBBT，earnings before bad things，壞事之前的盈利——那我的現金流好得不得了。

Paul Kedrosky39:00

And so we're now in this moment where the companies at the center of all of this are in this kind of Minsky moment where the financialization of what they're doing is so large and so broad it's affecting everything. But at the same time, they're all very eager to dump the shares and get them out there at a credibly large scale to retail investors.

所以我們現在處在這樣一個時刻：處於這一切中心的公司正處在某種明斯基時刻——它們所做之事的金融化規模如此之大、如此之廣，影響到了一切。但與此同時，它們又都非常急於把股票拋出去，以可信的大規模賣給散戶投資者。

Paul Kedrosky46:10

數字與實體

術語

balance sheet recession資產負債表衰退

企業不管利率高低都專注去槓桿、還債，導致長期不投資不招人的衰退形態。

Minsky moment明斯基時刻

金融化脫離底層現實後加速、隨後崩斷的時刻。

AMT替代性最低稅

美國稅法，員工低價行權期權即產生納稅義務，即使股票沒賣出。

hurdle rate門檻回報率

項目必須達到的最低迴報率，低於它投資者就不出錢。

EBBT壞事之前的盈利

Kedrosky 自造詞，把花錢的部分全砍掉後算出的現金流。

token maxingtoken 拉滿

客戶不計成本地大量消耗 token，製造出收入脈衝式增長。

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